I don't have the same level of detail behind my prediction. I think Romney will take it, but it will be silly close. I think people are upset. I think they're tired. I think people are uneducated and unforgiving. I think the Romney folks been capitalizing on the "we can't handle/afford four more years" mantra. That's the incumbent's dilemma. The challenger gets to paint with broad strokes and talk about hope and change and grand new ideas. The incumbent is stuck with his/her results, track record, and current status - even when most of that stuff is inherited. And I believe that whichever side wins, we are getting ready for the most ridiculous circus yet. I predict a messy election day/week/month. I think there will be allegations of cheating and wrongdoing on both sides. I hope I am wrong.
I also hope you're wrong too, but I think you're right that it will be messy. While I don't think a ton would change, as both candidates are fairly centrist, I definitely think Romney would be a step backwards. Fortunately, as a US citizen going to school in Canada, I have an easy out :).