My favorite theory of the release of COVID-19 was that it inadvertently was released by sloppy procedures at the SARS lab in Wuhan.
Turns out there are some pretty good details that mostly dispense with that notion, and lean towards the natural wet-market hypothesis. (But probably not in Wuhan.)
LOLEditor’s note, May 24, 2021: Since this piece was originally published in April 2020, scientific consensus has shifted. Now some experts say the “lab leak” theory warrants an investigation, along with the natural origin theory, and information in this article may be out of date. For our most up-to-date coverage of the coronavirus pandemic, visit Vox’s coronavirus hub.
Shi Zhengli Provides Proof SARS COV-2 Was Not an Accidental Release from Wuhan Institute of Virology That's not proof, bro. This guy, Jim White, goes on to accidentally rebut his title: It's not impossible that she's lying, but perhaps unlikely.?Now, after the details that Shi has provided, we would have to believe that a scientist with a long history of top-notch peer reviewed research would be involved in such a lie and would further fabricate the story that none of the previous isolates in her lab match the outbreak.
I will be the first to admit that I don't have a strong stance on either side, but I don't think there's a single, let alone 6, reasons to support the "natural" hypothesis in this article. The only one that I give any credence to whatsoever is the one about the US intelligence agencies/Chairman of the Joint Chiefs publicly stating that they don't have any evidence. It's sort of against normal logic for the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs to publicly contradict the President, so you'd think that he would only do so if he had good reason to believe in his own assessment. (Even that has the caveat that they go on to say it's not a bio-weapon--no shit, no one with half a brain is saying that and it only muddies the article.) Everyone else the author talked to is highly conflicted. There's a big debate in our own country about whether we should be allowing so many BSL3 and 4 labs to operate. And of course the people who want to continue to operate them are going to be keen to highlight how safe they are. Because if the guys in Galveston trained the guys in China and the guys in China were following their protocols and a virus STILL escaped? Well then the work isn't so safe now is it? And what if they weren't following the protocols? Are you, as a member of a pretty small scientific community that doubtlessly includes Shi, going to speculatively lambaste a collaborator and possible friend in the press, potentially putting that person's life in danger? The thing that the article doesn't address, which would have been nice to hear about, is why the extreme coincidence about Shi's work on ACE2 ligands? To me, that's the crux of the issue that I'd like to hear more about. It's probably a bit technical for a Vox article, but how often has anyone isolated a bat coronavirus with a high-affinity ACE2 ligand? I have no idea, but someone does, and they should talk to that person instead of a bunch of buddies of the suspected culprit. And the one about "chatter" is the dumbest fucking thing I've ever heard. It needs to be addressed, because it's just so asinine. If you're on the edge of a discovery you are taught from minute one to keep your goddam mouth shut. I don't work in virology, but I'm having a hard time believing that field is any different. Lots of people won't even submit grants about their work until they have something solid because they're so spooked by reviewers stealing ideas. It's actually embarrassing for Vox that they would include that. I despise Tom Cotton, and I despise the President. I know that either of them would peddle any conspiracy theory they could to direct anger and blame at China and help the president's reelection bid. I don't think that should at all color the evidence for or against the virus's origin. We need to know the truth to help us the next time, no matter whose reputation it steps on.
And of course the people who want to continue to operate them are going to be keen to highlight how safe they are.
Right, and this shit happens because it's mundane as fuck to violate environmental and safety protocols. I will not admit to having ever seen someone pour ethanol down a drain, because it's a few mL of ethanol and who gives a fuck because it amounts to less than the end of your margarita that you didn't finish. I won't admit to it, because that would be a violation of environmental regs that are serious and serve a good purpose. Problem is that when we all start deciding which rules are good and which are too stringent, we get into situations where people are pouring live virus down the drain. It's all so fucking matter of fact. And just imagine you're the guys from the Wuhan lab and the Americans and French who trained you are coming to inspect. Are you going to put your best face on? Again I want to stress that I'm not putting my chips on the table yet, but this Vox article is a giant piece of garbage, and shouldn't be considered as "evidence" on the natural hypothesis.
The "natural wet-market hypothesis" is a golden oldie.In 1986, Professor Matthew Meselson of Harvard University was granted approval by Soviet authorities for a four-day trip to Moscow where he interviewed several senior Soviet health officials about the outbreak. He later issued a report which agreed with the Soviet assessment that the outbreak was caused by a contaminated meat processing plant concluding the Soviets' official explanation was completely "plausible and consistent with what is known from medical literature and recorded human experiences with anthrax".
But two of the six factors in that article are hard to explain away, if you want it to be an accidental release from the Wuhan lab: 1. They didn't have any bats, 2. SARS-COV-2 is not a mutagen of RaTG13, because RaTG13 hasn't had long enough (20-50 years) for the necessary mutations to occur. (I see it like making the strong case for the non-existence of Bigfoot, because there is no "hole" in the animal population that would explain where a breeding number of Bigfootses would get the necessary calories to stay alive.)
Dude. Ken Alibek led a NATO procession of 200 scientists through an active biowar factory in 1989. They'd produced 20,000 tons of weapons-grade anthrax in the six months prior and produced another 80,000 tons of weapons-grade anthrax in the twelve subsequent months. That doesn't include tularemia, rabies, glanders, and all the other shit what bumps in the night. 30,000 empoyees that we never knew about. We were in this goddamn complex, looking for shit, expecting to find shit, and saw none. Matthew Meselson? MacArthur Genius Award. One of Linus Pauling's TAs. Teaches at Harvard. "plausable and consistent with what is known from medical literature." "They didn't have any bats?" They didn't have any fuckin' cows in Sverdlovsk, either, but they killed maybe a thousand people and blamed it on the butcher shop. "SARS-COV-2 is not a mutagen of RaTG13?" You say that as if you think it means something. There's a bunch of hinky shit around Coronavirus. My personal opinion is we'll never know what the fuck happened until if and when someone who has a clue decides to come clean and that could be decades. I have no skin in this game. Ebola sure looks like it jumped from animals but fuckin' hell there's been a lot of effort put into making it nastier. COVID-19? I'm no virologist. Not going to pretend to be. But I'm also not going to pretend that a bunch of self-serving self-referential platitudes in a fucking Vox article of all places have anything whatsoever to do with reality. And you shouldn't either.