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- We’re all guessing. But my best guess is that sometime in the next few years we’ll have the biggest tax increase since the end of World War II, regardless of who’s president. Spending will come down from current levels but stay higher than it was before the crisis as enhanced unemployment benefits become permanent. Debt will never actually decline; it will rise every year.
But if we’re lucky – that’s the right word – the panic-induced innovation that comes from Covid-19 will spark enough eventual prosperity to let us maintain or grow out of this debt, like we have before.