So you're going to throw up a bunch of matlab? LaTEX? Mathematica? And say look everyone else is an idiot? R0 is a power function. Period. It is defined as a power function. That's not a "cartoon" that's a definition. It is a coefficient of exponential growth. And while the argument was made in the article that certainly a curve could be fit using a power function, the point was that the numbers being generated clearly weren't. As to your model, you picked a tough one to get mathy on: So even in an article where the argument R0 is tough to estimate and really only useful to discuss indigenous spread where it is measured, you didn't get within a mile of anyone's published estimates. And for the record? One of the hallmarks of the 2009 Mexican Swine Flu outbreak was uncertainty and doubt about the numbers. So much so that I opted to drive from LA to Seattle because I had been told they were going to close the airports. Indeed. I have a pretty good idea what point you're trying to make? But I can't say that you've made it.For exam-ple, among individual states in India, the reproductive number for 2009 H1N1 ranged from 1.03to 1.75; likewise, estimates in Peru spanned from 1.2 to 2.2 depending on the specific region studied. Even close geographic neighbors had disparate R0 estimates; China estimated a mean R0 of 1.68, whereas Japan initially approximated a mean of 2.3,which was later reduced to 1.21 to1.35. Correspondingly, in Canada the mean estimate was 1.31 whereas public health officials in the United States initially esti-mated between 2.2 and 2.3, which was subsequently refined to1.7 to 1.8 with additional data collection. On the other hand,not all subsequent estimates of were downwardly biased. Fraser et al. were among the first to estimate the R0 in Mexico, proposing a basic reproductive number of 1.4 to 1.6. Just several months later, another team estimated the R0 was between 2.3 and 2.9.
Looks like the Mexican Government has got some 'splainin' to do.
Let's review: Three days ago, the argument was that China was lying about the numbers. Two days ago, your argument was that your analysis proves that nobody knows anything about numbers and nobody should accuse anyone of lying about numbers. Today, your argument is that your analysis is more work than anyone else's numbers (never mind that it's spurious) and one, two, three, four, five, six paragraphs about how everyone's numbers are bullshit. "borderline racist bullshit" in fact. Meanwhile, China has been dismissing party officials and revised their count steeply upward. The argument at the outset was that China was pushing a false narrative. Three days later, China has relieved party heads and has changed their narrative.