I'm just old enough to recall when the US's chief global rival was the Soviet Union (my love for Red Dawn should serve as evidence). I also recall more recently in the 1990's when Japan was the economic powerhouse to fear and now it's China. It's good for our country to have nations that push us to be better educated, more productive and creative in our aspirations. However, I don't see that right now. With the Soviets there were weapons advancements, the space race etc. With the Japanese it was more of an economic battle -think automotive. With the Chinese, it should be a battle about tech-innovation and education but I fear that it's being billed as a battle of "size". Whose economy is bigger, whose economy is growing faster etc. Perhaps this will play to our advantage as China is growing so fast, it is likely unsustainable. Perhaps we are better off with slow and steady growth than fast and furious? Sort of like the joke about the young/old bulls: An old bull and a young bull were standing on a hill looking down on a valley full of cows. “Hey”, says the young bull. “Let’s run down and fuck one of those cows…” “No”, says the old bull. “Let’s walk down and fuck all of them.” Slow and steady wins the race.
That's not one of Aesop's is it? I do think China will see a change in government. However, I am American, and I cannot understand China. They draw from a different well. I wouldn't be surprised if the CCP doesn't last 10 years, but I also wouldn't be surprised if they last 100. IMO China doesn't look to us. They are China. I think our nations talk past one another. They do have massive financial issues. They have a housing bubble that makes ours look like a blip. There is a formula for collapse there. But they also have nationalized banks, 1.2B people, and disparities in wealth and culture unlike anything we have. They also have incredibly resilient and resourceful people that wait things out. China is complicated.
I imagine the premise of that joke has seen many iterations over the years. Who knows, perhaps Aesop told his version in some Black Sea tavern back in the day. "Two rams are on mount Olympus..." What about China's population, they have 1.2b people but what is the age breakdown? With increased life expectancy and low birthrates (by design) aren't they in trouble in this regard too? A fast aging population and no one to man the giant economy they've created or to buy all the homes they've built?
This might be relevant: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/charting-chinas-monetary-polic...