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comment by Devac
Devac  ·  544 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: /quit: X-COM 2

First of all, I second cgod on Long War mod. It's great and absolutely worth to at least give it a try. It's worth to look into the Wiki for it while learning how they have changed the mechanics.

Secondly, the thing about randomness and chance: 1 in 5 successes with the likelihood of failure being 0.8:

  Successes (p = 0.2) ; Failures (q = 1 - p = 0.8); Chance

0 ; 5 ; 0.32768

1 ; 4 ; 0.4096

2 ; 3 ; 0.2048

3 ; 2 ; 0.0512

4 ; 1 ; 0.0064

5 ; 0 ; 0.00032

That's the most likely scenario! How?

The thing is, the probability is a hard thing to approach. It's frustrating and hard to get your head wrapped around it. There was a case with Apple's shuffling function being 'not random enough' because it was returning sequences of songs by the same artist. They had to make it more random for human perception by making it less random from a probabilistic side of things - they did it by removing repeating sequences. Maybe the XCOM 2 is indeed a cheat. But what you describe isn't something that's impossible to happen in a truly random fashion.

EDIT: DOH! You meant 80% chance to hit. Sorry. I would still do the maths on it but starts to look indeed skewed in favour of the computer.

Did the math. Sorry for the confusion on my part. It should have been 4 hits being the most likely scenario if I understand the case correctly.




johnnyFive  ·  544 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Right. And more to the point, in this context I think human perception is actually more important than true randomness. I get that what happened to me is consistent with the laws of probability, but it makes for a frustrating experience, especially because planning becomes so difficult.