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comment by jadedog
jadedog  ·  2591 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: The Untold Story of Obama’s Lost Army

    Dems are going to lose 5-7 Senate Seats and at least two governors in 2018. They are going to lose at least one more statehouse. And come 2020 when it is time for the Census and redistricting, you will cry in vain for the shitshow we have now compared to what is coming.

I'm curious where this information is from. I was just watching a Rachel Maddow piece where she says that Democrats are coming out of the woodwork to run for office in places where Republicans went unchallenged in the past. It's toward the end of this video.

Democrats See New Zeal Among New Candidates Rachel Maddow

I'm wondering if this information is already in your estimate.





b_b  ·  2590 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I think the Senate map favors republicans in 2018. Several democrats from conservative states who were elected either in 2006 or 2012, which were big democrat years, are up for reelection. I personally think it's too early to tell. Obviously the GOP has a gigantic structural advantage across the entire federal government, but mid-terms almost always cost the president's party seats. And we haven't yet seen how much people hate this president. Even with their gerrymandering advantage in the House, and their structural advantage in the House and Senate, history predicts the GOP will lose seats. Trump is kind of ahistorical however, so who the hell knows what could happen.