Is the Chinese Economy Running Out of Steam? : The New Yorker

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Is the Chinese Economy Running Out of Steam? : The New Yorker · 4

imherenowwhat · 4307 days ago

newyorker.com · #china

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mk · 4307 days ago · link ·

The CCP has a degree of control over the economy that can't be matched by most wealthy nations. However, I wonder if the result of that kind of control also creates the ability to build an even more dangerous bubble.

The first time I went to China was in 2001. The last time I was there was 2010. The rate of development is unbelievable. I cannot imagine that growth like that can occur without a pullback.

Personally, I have doubts that there will be just one party in China in 2020.

+discuss+discuss

ecib · 4307 days ago · link ·

Over what time period?

I was just looking at the GDP data and found this:

http://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&#...

My jaw dropped when I looked at what has happened since I graduated high school in 1993. Crazy. China had no economy to speak of then. Now...damn.

+discuss+discuss

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imherenowwhat · 4307 days ago · link ·

The title is misleading. It may have less "steam" at the moment but it could coast for a while and still be out pacing it's rivals. Something I often wonder is how an economy can grow that fast and not be built of straw? Can you build an infrastructure that quickly and not have huge problems? According to your link, the real growth occurred from 2005 to 2010, in 5 years. This means in 2020 that infrastructure will start becoming dated and will need replacing. I see some real challenges for China in the future. Thanks for the GDP link.

+discuss+discuss

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ecib · 4307 days ago · link ·

You know, I just don't know the answer to this. I don't think it is necessarily a bad thing. A lot of infrastructure projects that people fund in taxes end up returning profits right back to the community in the form of wages and business opportunities around the new infrastructure which also generate revenue and feed wealth back into the system (private and public coffers).

I am just absolutely blown away by the slope of the graph compared to it's historical flatline. It makes me wish I could have moved to Beijing in the early nineties. I'd have loved to be there for the transformation, -I think it's fascinating, and probably the closest I could have come to seeing something like the Roaring 20's in America recreated. (I know there are a LOT of cultural and market differences, but still...)