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comment by user-inactivated
user-inactivated  ·  2839 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Larry Summers: Interest rates are at inconceivable levels, and we must confront what that means

    They are only going to add more air to bubbles that already are making people wince in nervous expectation.

I'm gonna go look at a house tomorrow that last sold in the early 2000s for 50% of what the current asking price is. I don't have high hopes for this particular one, but the price they're asking for it is still a great deal. Still, if the housing bubble could pop sometime this week, I'd be grateful. If the housing bubble could please pop and the bank still has those low lending rates for a 30 fixed mortgage, well, I'd be downright ecstatic.





kleinbl00  ·  2839 days ago  ·  link  ·  

The bubble will pop, and as the central bankers have no solutions to anything other than "quick print money" the rates will remain low. The most striking thing to me about the Brexit was how little time the Royal Bank waited before announcing, unasked, that they'd pump 250 billion pounds into the economy (hint: it was in the middle of the night, before Cameron resigned). Meanwhile, we've got the neo-wingers over at NakedCapitalism insisting that "bankers are now actively stoking fears so as to force officials to give bailouts."

When all you have is a hammer, the whole world is a nail... and the central banks have convinced themselves that the only tool available to them is to throw money at the problem. Keep your powder dry. The housing market is stupid right now in no small part because investors are dumping their nickels everywhere that doesn't leak too much. You, with your scraped-together nest-egg and your dream of home ownership, are outmatched, outgunned and outclassed by some hedge fund snapping up nine hundred houses to flip into rentals. Students of history will observe that these sorts of situations tend to resolve themselves with stunning rapidity.

OftenBen  ·  2839 days ago  ·  link  ·  

    Students of history will observe that these sorts of situations tend to resolve themselves with stunning rapidity.

For the benefit of those of us still in kindergarden (WRT Housing Finance History), what kind of resolutions are we talking about?

kleinbl00  ·  2839 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Well, Burbank, Glendale and Pasadena retrenched 50-60% between 2007 and 2009. Housing developments in the Inland Empire went vacant.

We tried to spend our way out of the recession. The argument now is will we ever turn off the tap? Because if we do, we're back in recession. But if we don't, we're all on welfare. Monopoly is a tough game to win when the bank covers not only everyone's rental payments but also everyone's property purchases.