I bet this is why Obama, Yellen, and Biden met in April. Still, I am expecting a June hike. It is the Fed's last chance. I think they will take it.
Maybe, but I think it's unlikely at this point. It seems like there's a growing consensus that one of the big factors in the slowing job growth is the incredible strength of the dollar. One of the reasons the dollar is soaring is because of the Fed's recent hike, making the US the only place you can even get a shitty interest rate. So everyone is pouring money in, causing lots of pain for manufacturing and other exporters. Another rate hike in the face of worldwide negative rates could greatly exacerbate this problem. The economic strength of the US says raise rates, but ECB's and BoJ's negative rates have the Fed painted into a corner. This is how trade wars and then real wars start.