One of two things is happening here, imo. 1.) the US and other countries finally got together and paid the Saudi government to stop loss-leading their oil to make expansion in said countries difficult. 2.) the Saudis stopped blinked, and decided they couldn't lose that much money anymore whilst also messing with their international rep.
3.) Mohammed bin Salman is further consolidating power. I think you have a 31-year-old Wahabi princeling that wants to (A) bust out the oil industry and make as much as he can now and (B) keep those filthy Shia on the outs where they belong let's bomb Yemen again.
Yeah, I'd call that more likely. It seems like a short-sighted move to me. Canada's basically out of the oil game at this point - we can't afford it, especially considering the giant-ass fire going on in Fort Mac right now. Then again, when has a 31 year old princeling consolidating power been "forward thinking"?
Naaaah. You've got a short-term fire. Worst-case scenario that thing's out in like a week. Production ramps back up. Canada has oil and gas to sell. and it's a shorter hop to the major refinery sites (gulf states of the USA) than Saudi Arabia by far. A cynical man would argue that the fire was arson so all those oil companies could suck down some insurance money. Lord knows they need it. The existential problem Saudi Arabia faces is that shale and tar sand oil production is economically viable at lower levels than it was. The existential problem faced by all oil producers is that oil production of all kinds is not economically viable at current levels. Thus, massive bankruptcies, unprecedented wealth destruction, etc. But a bigger problem for Saudi Arabia is that Iran has been mostly getting along fine despite being under nearly constant sanction since 1979. And now - they get to sell oil. Saudi Arabia has to do more than figure out how to make money with oil - they need to figure out how to make money, drive the US and Canadian shale oil producers out of business, and prevent Iran from gaining marketshare. From one perspective, bin Salman is making "bold moves." From another, he's making "spastic backlashes."
I've been expecting to hear someone who knows more than me to say Iran is angling to take Saudi Arabia's place as the relatively friendly country in the middle east that isn't Israel since sanctions ended.But a bigger problem for Saudi Arabia is that Iran has been mostly getting along fine despite being under nearly constant sanction since 1979. And now - they get to sell oil.
While I think you're probably right, I think you're mistaken about Canada's oil abilities - even without Saudi competition. I just see the fire as Icing on the cake. Our two main oil producing provinces, Alberta and Newfoundland, are in massive deficits right now. Even with advances in tar sands and oil rig cost efficiencies, it's just so fucking expensive to produce oil in Canada right now.
Hey, North Dakota is fucked, too. The fact of the matter remains - there's oil in the shale and the shale is easier to mine than it was ten years ago. Easy enough? Well, that's the big bet. Although. I look at that and I do see an economy in need of diversification... but it's not like the US is immune.