I think you're right about war in Europe, at least I hope so. Even so, part of me (and Tolstoy) wonders if war isn't a force that we add characters and a story to. When enough countries cannot grow out of their debt, and the debt becomes untenable, we might become lemmings.
I can see a desperate China punching Japan in the face. Unlike war in Europe, it would be culturally cathartic.