Okay, let's take it one at a time. I'm not sure if there's any actual content here. Basically, "rah, rah, QE worked." Well, yes. When you step on the gas the car goes faster. The question is whether or not you used up all the gas in the tank and now you're going to coast to a stop. That's the principle concern among most economic bears - yes, throwing money at the economy caused people to spend. That's not the issue, whether or not you created something self-sustaining is. Here's Tony Sagami on the crazy numbers being crowed about here: TL;DR - That growth was revised upwards three times and is about 95% military spending and Obamacare. Obamacare isn't exactly a model of efficiency (also known as productivity) and ThinkProgress has pointed out that the cost overruns on the F-35 are enough to buy every homeless person in America a $600k home. So - if bureaucracy and military spending are "The American economic model" someone should probably tell Gorbachev. Remember how everyone called Greenspan a genius? And then the economy crashed? And Bernanke and Yellen had to throw money at the problem to try and bring it back? And now everyone has decided that Greenspan was a dangerous moron? This is the "Greenspan is a genius" part of the program, only with Bernanke and Yellen instead of Greenspan. Not saying they're going to blow up the economy. Not saying there are better ideas. AM saying it's a little early to strike up the band. Wait, what? "It hasn't popped yet, therefore it's not a bubble!" Sheer genius, I say. Cheap oil is here to stay to punish Iran and Russia, especially since China has things tied up with Kazakhstan and isn't buying stuff so much on the open market. Anyone who doesn't think oil and its distribution is the heart of geopolitical influence should go look up Operation Ajax. Water remains wet, ice remains cold. Global warming continues, as do death and taxes. I predict the sun will rise tomorrow. Which is self-evident, and also funny, as Abenomics is (1) and (2) ratched up to eleven. Abenomics basically banked on Japan, which has deflation and an imploding population, could out-produce the rest of the developed world 2:1. However, "bust' also means "hyperinflation" which is really good for getting rid of debt. Which pisses everyone off, they whinge about the demise of your economy, and eight years later you're hailed as a comeback story. See Brazil. Or, see Russia is Russia and has been since Peter the Great. Notice how everyone's calling Putin done but the Russians? There's a lesson there. ISIS was "Al Qaeda in Iraq" until even Khalid Sheikh Mohammed said they were too fuckin' crazy. They were a political entity that decided they'd be a state. States are responsible to people and must defend territory. Political entities don't. Thus, ISIS getting its ass kicked the minute anyone decided to kick it. Yes, countries can band together to accomplish great things, like Doctors Without Borders or the Red Cross. This is not new. Someone is going to have to convince me that the UK is in any way relevant to the world outside of reality television and football. This is a pretty easy prediction to make two months after midterms. I can't recall a time that the midterms of a 2nd presidency aren't a bloodbath. Well, Obamacare isn't imploding. I think it's a little early to make a judgement call, don't you? I'm not sure how you'd judge that one. The fact that he's finally making some executive orders? Well, three or four of them can be solved by inspection. The ones that pretend to any real insight are pretty f'in naive if you ask me. But then, I've never understood the slavish adulation for The New Yorker. My mother gave me a subscription last year. I cancelled it. Aside from Seymour Hersh it's a fundamentally useless rag unless you need to know what off-Broadway shows are playing in February.1. The American economic model is back.
Fun with Numbers #1: The biggest improvement was in the Net Exports category, which increased by 112 basis points. How did they manage that? There was a downturn in Imports.
Fun with Numbers #2: Of the 5% GDP growth, 0.80% was from government spending, most of which was on national defense. I’m a big believer in a strong national defense, but building bombs, tanks, and jet fighters is not as productive to our economy as bridges, roads, and schools.
Fun with Numbers #3: Almost half of the gain came from Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) and deserves extra scrutiny. Of that 221 bps of PCE spending:
Services spending accounts for 115 bps. Of that 115, 15 bps was from nonprofits such as religious groups and charities. The other 100 bps was for household spending on “services.”
Of that 100 bps, the two largest categories were Healthcare spending (52 bps) and Financial Services/Insurance (35 bps).
The end result is that 85% of the contribution to GDP from Household Spending on Services came from healthcare and insurance! In short… those are code words for Obamacare!
While the experts on Pennsylvania Avenue and Wall Street were overjoyed, I see just another pile of white-collar manure and nothing to shout about.
Fun with Numbers #4: Lastly, the spending on Goods—the backbone of a health, growing economy—declined by 27 bps.
In a related news, the November durable goods report showed a -0.7% drop in spending, quite the opposite of the positive number that Wall Street was expecting.
2. Monetary policy works.
3. The markets aren’t experiencing a bubble.
On the Nasdaq, technology I.P.O.s are coming thick and fast following the September début of Alibaba, which was the biggest Internet I.P.O. yet.
4. Cheap gasoline is here to stay. Thanks to the shale-oil boom, the days when oil traded at a hundred dollars a barrel are gone for good.
5. The European Union remains a tragedy in the making.
6. Abenomics is a bust.
7. Russia is Saudi Arabia with nukes and snow.
8. Multilateralism can still be effective. In Iraq and Syria, Americans, Iranians, and personnel from many other countries are coöperating in a military campaign that has arrested the advance of the Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS).
9. In the general election slated for May in Britain, the anti-immigrant United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) will inadvertently enable the opposition Labour Party to regain power.
10. The G.O.P. is ascendant.
11. Obamacare is working.
12. President Obama is far from a lame duck.
How many of these lessons are accurate? My guess is about half.
Thanks for elaborating. I don't really have the geopolitical knowledge to judge the article on its merit. That I did know! My history teacher once spent an entire lecture on how oil influenced everything. He'd ask the class: "Why did conflict X happen?" crickets OIL!! Like it's the punchline to a joke. And then he'd explain how the causal chain started with oil and money and led to war and terror. My first reflex to any geopolitical issue now is to look for the people making a load of money off the conflict. They're probably propagating it one way or another.Anyone who doesn't think oil and its distribution is the heart of geopolitical influence should go look up Operation Ajax.
What's funny is the Adam Smith Invisible Hand Free Marketers are all about the incredible geopolitical power of oil, yet somehow think it's only exercised by corporate interests. Maudlin and Tepper wrote a book called Code Red in which they argued that currency wars would likely erupt in 2014 because there was too much debt and too much to be gained long-term from hyperinflating it away, and pointed to Japan as the most likely instigator of the first volley. Thing of it is, anybody with any savings is pretty much the first boat on Omaha Beach in a currency war, and that's why nobody likes them. Lots of old people in Japan are going to be wiped out. But if you look at it, all this shit in Greece is kind of like a civil currency war - "savers experiencing a haircut" means the same thing as "anybody with any savings is fucked due to inflation."
I have really noticed that things are going very well for the US at the moment. Oil prices are low, russia is screwed, the US benefits. China has a slower growth, the US is still maintaining ground and not showing signs of crashing. Jobs look to be headed back. New generations of technology are on their way very soon. Self driving cars, etc, are looking to really bring us back to a world where car-centric cities are better than pedestrian ones.