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comment by thenewgreen
thenewgreen  ·  3569 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Humans will land on Mars by 2026: Elon Musk

As in all things space-x related, I turn to my space advisor AlderaanDuran to ask, "is this feasible?" Also, what about the claims in this thread that Space-X doesn't have the funding?

Also, how are ya AlderaanDuran? Long time no space talk...





AlderaanDuran  ·  3563 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  

    how are ya AlderaanDuran?

I am alive and well, and occasionally checking Hubski out. I don't don't really post much anymore or do the social site stuff for a variety of reasons, but do occasionally take a peak at Hubski. I got married in October of last year, found out my wife was pregnant the following month, and am expecting a baby girl pretty soon here in early August. Plus it's summer time Minnesota, which means wedding season photography and lots of yard/house work.

How are you TNG? Been awhile.

    "is this feasible?"

Yes, but it would take a lot of money and has practically zero ROI unless he can get a government to pay for the ride, and all of the R/D that lead to all of the technologies that would be needed. I say that's doubtful. That being said, I think there is a possibility Elon Musk is eccentric enough to possibly just foot the bill with hopes of breaking down some barriers and getting himself a very large mention in the history books along with a bunch of statues, monuments, and exhibits in museums.

They are working on the Red Dragon which would be a version of the Dragon capsule capable of soft landing via retro rockets. The Soyuz already does this to an extent, as it lands on land and not in the sea like the previous US capsules. That's really the ONLY piece of technology that I've read about from them that has applications to a manned Mars landing. AND, they are talking about a NASA first flight of it in 2022 for a landing mission for a possible drill probe and also proving that a lander of this nature would work for humans. So I don't see them turning around and 4 years later putting people down after using this thing for the first time... even if that first time stays on schedule and right now it's just a rough proposition that recently came out. But then there's the whole journey there, the habitats, food, water, radiation protection, and the biggest question; Once you land on Mars... how do you get those men back into orbit for a docking with the cruise stage, and back to Earth?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Dragon_%28spacecraft%29

The best window for Mars puts people on Mars for well over a year, the smallest ideal window that has rare occurrences could have them there and back in a little under a year. Because you have to wait for the ideal line up to launch from Earth to Mars, then wait on Mars for everything to line up again, with us leaving Mars as is leads ahead of Earth in orbit. Each way we would essentially fly towards the orbit path and the target planet would come up on us, instead of us burning after it.

I would love to believe Musk and say 2026 can happen, but I'm super skeptical about it all. There's so much tech needed. Falcon Heavy hasn't even flown yet, Red Dragon is still on the drawing board, there is a lot of other tech needed that really hasn't been addressed yet, and currently there is no customer to fund what would be the most expensive and risky manned space mission ever. While Musk is rich, I don't think he could even fund something like this with every penny he has.

We'll see, but I say doubtful. My guess for people on Mars would be late 2030s, but I'd LOVE to be proven wrong. US will only pay for a Mars trip when Russia or China starts getting serious about it.

thenewgreen  ·  3563 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Here, have a badge for a well thought out answer and for all of the great stuff happening in your life. I tell you what, having a little girl is an absolute blast, I'm happy for you. Congratulations! -Speaking of costs.... :)

I would agree that Musk seems like the type that would be willing to personally finance as much as he could in order to achieve something of this magnitude. That said, he has consistently been able to make pretty shrewd business decisions and perhaps some of the tech/patents that could come out of this endeavor would be valuable enough to justify the costs?

I think there's a lot of "If anyone can, Musk can" sentiment out there for good reason.

NikolaiFyodorov  ·  3569 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I haven't seen AlderaanDuran around for ages, now that you mention it.

thenewgreen  ·  3569 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I know, I'm worried about him. He lives in a neighborhood prone to chemical fires. I'll PM him, in hopes of a response just to ensure he's alive and well.

NikolaiFyodorov  ·  3569 days ago  ·  link  ·  

It does seem unusual, given how frequently he used to crop up in my feed. On that topic, whatever happened to Saydrah?

thenewgreen  ·  3569 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I saw that she stopped by a few months ago to let us know she had moved to the LA area, I think. But let's see what she's up to... Hey Saydrah, how goes it?

Saydrah  ·  3564 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Hey! BTW mk your notification emails are consistently getting spammed in Zimbra -- good fortune I checked my junk on a whim today.

I'm in LA, working for the first time since 2009 at a purpose-driven company, and it feels great. I'm a person who can derive a greater purpose from almost anything (a lawyer friend told me once, "You must believe your client to be a good advocate," and I took that to heart along with Indra Nooyi's advice on assuming positive intentions) but it's great to be in a place where everyone is on that page. I've found it very easy to live in LA so far. The weather is of course so fantastic that people poke fun at it for being so great all the time. The people are friendly. (Really, they are. LA stereotypes have been exaggerated significantly.) There's always something to do. ALWAYS.

Having a blast. But busy as hell growing a community of my own, so I've only been around others sparingly!

mk  ·  3564 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Thanks, Saydrah.

I'm glad to hear that things are going well for you in LA. If we have a meetup out there, I am going to give you a shoutout.

thenewgreen  ·  3564 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Hey! Back at ya. That was a nice surprise to hear from you Saydrah. It's evident from your comment that you are happy and doing well. Being a part of a "purpose driven company," that you can "believe in" seems to make all the difference.

Good luck building that community.

I have to ask (because I always do), how is your uncle doing with the bees?