Advances will be more incremental than before and quickly matched. GPT-5 or a similarly impressive model will come eventually, perhaps led by OpenAI, a Chinese company, or maybe a competitor like Google will get there first. Whichever way it falls out, the advantage will be short-lived.

    Models will continue to get more efficient and less expensive, but hallucinations and reliability problems will persist.

    Contra Silicon Valley scuttlebutt, neither country will achieve AGI by the end of 2027. Racing endlessly around LLMs will sap resources that might go into developing more original ideas.