by kleinbl00

Allow me to recommend a book.

Spin Dictators holds as its central premise that the face of dictatorship has changed as authoritarian regimes discover that allowing a token opposition movement, small-press dissident media and an outward appearance of press and personal freedom allow savvy dictators to maintain effective control over economies and governments without any real opposition. They track the transition from authoritarianism-through-violence to authoritarianism-through-subversion and point out that old-school repressive regimes (Iran, Myanmar, etc) experience greater upheaval, lower productivity and greater instability than new-school repressive regimes (Singapore, Venezuela, Hungary and, yes, Russia).

Sam Greene's theory here -

Even though Russia’s opposition and human rights movements pose no proximate political threat, Putin has somehow maneuvered himself into a position in which allowing them to exist even on paper is an intolerable risk, and the costs of tolerance appear in all cases to outweigh the costs of coercion.

is seen as an end-stage condition by Guriev and Treisman. If your repressive regime has functioned thus far through subversion, your switch to overt repression generally signals impending regime change. By functionally eliminating the safety valve that keeps the elite and intelligentsia in check, the apathetic public loses the illusion that they are governed by choice. The regime must either double down or collapse. Or both. Both is very much an option.