Ok, this is partially a continuation of my bad mood Monday night, but I need to hear hubski's thoughts on this one. Also feel free to change the community tag if I'm being too depressing, I realize that not everyone uses hubski like I do, and don't want this kind of content around. My suggestion, #oftenbenisinabadmood .
DISCLAIMER: I have a positive diagnosis for clinical depression, and ~2 years of missing time due to SSRI's.
Optimism, in general, is childish, unreasonable and most importantly, irrational. I try to live my life, and view the world as much as possible by well thought out, rational and empathetic principles. Part of this is an informed and, by my estimation, realistic, interpretation of the future. As much as possible, when making big decisions (Career, education, etc) I take all possible modifying factors into account and make an estimation of possible outcomes. Usually this takes the form of 'ideal', 'realistic' and 'catastrophic' outcomes. I worry about utility a lot, both personal (What is best for me?) and general (What is best for the species as a whole?) Optimism, as I understand it, is the anticipation of optimal outcomes, usually regardless of data.
I don't spend much time thinking about 'ideal' outcomes, because that is just fantasizing/daydreaming about 'Oh, how amazing would my life be if these things came to be.' It would be nice if the ideal outcome occurred, but as far as planning purposes go, I don't think too much about the 'next step' after ideal outcomes, because again, fantasizing.
'Realistic' outcomes take up much more of my thought process/time. The thought often comes to mind as 'What is most likely to occur based on current information and information about past behaviors of similar individuals/organizations in similar circumstances?' This is the fundamental problem of induction, which simply stated is 'The future will be like the past' which is routinely proven to be untrue. But I do it anyway, because induction has proven to be the most useful tool in formal logic and scientific thinking as a whole. (The minute someone comes up with a satisfying answer to the Grue/Bleen problem let me know. ) History is a useful teacher in this, both on a personal and global scale, but the trends are worrying, especially given the recent (historically speaking) developments in the fields of nuclear and biological weaponry.
'Catastrophic' prediction is generally the one that proves to be of highest utility though. Because if you plan for the worst happening, you can only be pleasantly surprised, rather than unpleasantly surprised. Things can only go better than catastrophe. But if things go badly, its is the pessimist who is best prepared, and who comes out on top. I spend a good chunk of time thinking about damage control, best phrased as 'If everything I can imagine in this scenario goes belly-up, how do I minimize damage to myself/those I care about and/or maximize recovery from that damage?'
Given all of this, I don't see any medium or long term value in Optimism. All of the cases I hear in it's favor are for short term reduction of anxiety/stress/discomfort or the occasional appeal to 'Don't give yourself an ulcer.' I see no long-term utility for optimistic thinking. The long term is important, because I think that way, and I tend to view those who don't think beyond themselves as greedy, stupid and worthy of contempt. If I think long-term enough, I eventually get back to suicidal ideation, because the whole universe ends in heat-death anyway, so why bother with anything? (Except for the 'killing yourself hurts those you love' argument, which only works because of guilt)
By my understanding of utility, Optimism has very little, and only short term. Long-term Optimism is unreasonable, and of negative utility. (Bad things will happen that were not accounted for) By my way of thinking, to maximize the amount of good I am able to do for myself and others (Which is something I value), I should always be accounting for, and most concerned with outcomes most likely and catastrophic. I would give quite a lot for a logical reason to think otherwise.