n June 2008, half a year inside the recession, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke declared that the risk of a “substantial downturn appears to have diminished,” stressing the “the upside risks to inflation” instead. The futures markets agreed wholeheartedly, betting on more than a full percentage point of Fed rate hikes by year-end. This was smack in the middle of what turned out to be the worst recession since the Great Depression. When Lehman Brothers collapsed in August 2008 – nine months after the Great Recession began – the GDP data showed it rising in every single quarter since 2001, barring a miniscule dip at the end of 2007. Those numbers were downgraded only after the recession ended, with much of the revisions coming years later.