... and that's why you're not getting a payraise anytime soon. Underemployment replaces unemployment


More wonkishly stated, the Fed does most of its forecasting and decision-making based on the Phillips Curve, which basically slaps a coefficient between unemployment and wages. However, the Fed has re-jiggered the definition of "unemployment" and "wages" so much in the past 20 years that their coefficients no longer work.

The model itself is fine: people will pay more to hire someone if they can't attract anyone at a shitty salary. However, the market incentives are such that "shitty salary" is attractive for (A) benefits (B) credit rating (C) rental references (D) income stability. Effectively, the conservative business model has made unemployment so dystopian that Victorian workhouses are attractive.

posted by cW: 197 days ago