IN ENGLISH

The European Central Bank has announced that their since-the-recession project of buying up all the debt it could find to shore up the economy is coming to an end.

In simpler terms, let's say you have a company and you need money. You say "I'm selling bonds! buy one so I can spend your money!" and for the past ten years, the European Central Bank has been saying "I'll take it!" to the tune of $35 billion a month. This is not called "socialism" it is called "liquidity."

The last three months of 2018 will see purchases reduced by 50%. That's what we call a "taper" despite the fact that you'd be tempted to call it "halfway to cold turkey."

The other shoe: eventually, that debt will need to be sold. All 9 trillion dollars. The governments under the ECB only hold $46T of debt. One dollar in five is central bank "quantitative easing." Again, this is not socialism, primarily because it goes to Deutsche Bank and Santander, not you.

I've now seen five different financial guys point out that in 2008, central banks pulled out every stop in Bernanke's book except one: the jubilee. That's where the banks tear up the balance sheets, three-finger-salute the economy and say "olly olly alls-in-free!"

Interesting times.

mk:

I expect we shall see a jubilee eventually. Math does not add up.

Look for your managed retirement to be buying up shiny instruments that are rated super-duper but backed by corporate debt that is 💩.

I'm sure not all corporate debt can go bad at once and if you package it, then it's derisked and can carry a higher rating. /s


posted 2135 days ago