If someone were to offer you a unique investment opportunity forecast to pay 0% annual returns over

    the next five years, would you sign up? What if they added that, at some point over that period, the

    value of your investment may drop by 30%? High volatility, low return investments do not get serious

    attention among even the most foolish of investors, so we would venture to guess there would be very

    few takers.

    Interestingly, based upon the CAPE analysis above, the U.S. stock market is currently offering that very

    same probability of return and risk and buyers cannot seem to get enough. Given these dynamics, not

    only is investor behavior perplexing, it seems to us altogether incoherent which in our view provides

    further evidence bubble behavior is upon us.



Odder:

The sky is falling, chicken little. Or, for those of us not planning on retiring in <10 years: how stock is going to be "on sale" for the next few years.

Though I do wonder how anybody claims to be an expert on what the S&P 500 is going to do in the next five years. Probably by lying?


posted by kleinbl00: 620 days ago