After winning a ten-year bet on the price of oil, I considered offering a repeat bet, double-or-nothing. My position was not based on an oil forecast, but on Julian Simon's thesis about ever-more-available natural resources in the long term.

In 2005, when oil was trading at $58.75, I was uncertain, but willing to risk $100. My friend says he was willing to bet much more.

Now a barrel of oil is trading at $33.62, and I am still uncertain. That's not a lot of money, less than the price of seven Big Macs! Can it really drop much lower? You can't even buy an empty barrel for under $40.

The Economist does not adjust the Big Mac index often, and not always upward, but the overall trend has been to rise faster than inflation. This helps my side, but unfortunately an increase was posted just before we agreed on terms, so the new ratio will be based on $33.62 for oil / $4.93 Big Mac.

My friend is uncertain too, but willing to risk $100 on another ten-year wager. We have agreed, then, so watch this space for an update in February 2026.