I have a hard time with the assumption that consumer finances are healthy. With 1.2T in student loan debt carrying a 11.6% delinquency rate, there might be drags on consumer spending that low gas prices aren't going to alleviate. Overall debt is creeping up, and student debt is marching up.
Here's my working hypothesis on oil: For years, oil companies could issue bonds based on the assumption that oil would be profitable, even shale oil. But supply has grown much faster than demand, and these bonds are being downgraded. Downgrades hurt, because refinancing debt becomes more expensive, and many portfolios cannot hold low grade bonds. Once bonds are sold, their price is realized. Making matters worse, bonds have become harder to unload, raising fears of a bond liquidity crisis. That is, everyone rushes to the door, to get that crap off of their balance sheet, and only one person (the one taking the biggest haircut) is allowed through at a time. In short, extended low oil prices could be the pin that pricks the high yield bubble.
It is likely that China is going to have to devalue the yuan even further as their slowdown persists.