538, as usual, has been pretty insightful about Trump recently. There's this piece, and this one as well: http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/two-good-reasons-not-to-take-the-donald-trump-surge-seriously/
Okay, let's be serious. Asking as a non-American, is there ACTUALLY a chance he'll win? If he does, how fucked are we?