The bigger challenge, he wrote, "is what I'd call the paradigm problem," that is, when "We get a certain paradigm in our heads. A conventional wisdom. Someone is a front runner, someone else a long shot. We develop this paradigm from a witches' brew of polling, money, instinct and the ineffable judgments of the chattering classes of political 'experts.'" The only antidote, he added, "is reporting."

('He' being NPR's Michael Oreskes)