It's an interesting hypothesis, but without some sort of experimentation, there's no way to know if it's true. It's quite possible that the Elf on the Shelf has the opposite effect. I'm sure if we were to have had an Elf on the Shelf when we were kids, we would have soon discovered the limits of his powers.
That said, we were just talking about the Elf on the Shelf last night, and I joked that we should expect a leak of the Elf on the Shelf files soon.
He sees you when you're sleeping
He knows when you're awake
He knows if you've been bad or good
So be good for goodness sake
You better watch out, you better not cry
You better not pout, I'm telling you why
The Elf on the Shelf, if anything, normalizes the dystopic surveillance state first conceived in 1934. Santa Claus is the all-seeing, all-knowing, omnipotent power that children are warned about. I mean, shit - if you touch the elf you break his magic. Santa Claus, meanwhile, is an irresistible force capable of ruining your holidays.