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wasoxygen  ·  6 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Hubski Race Report: A Foray into Ultrarunning

Great job! That’s a strong finish on what sounds like a tough course.

I like dry feet and have carefully tiptoed across wobbly rocks to avoid getting wet, only to have to wade through a stream minutes later. RDs always seem to downplay the downsides.

So, 50’s done, what’s next?

ButterflyEffect  ·  5 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Race Directors are a special breed...I signed up for what will be an incredibly muddy and wet 50k at the end of January, have a 50k in April and another in July, and a 50miler or 100k sometime next year. Getting a mountain trail run in this weekend while the weather is good.

One thing I didn't mention in the article, pinging WanderingEng too, was the emotional aftermath. Maybe you've experienced this too. It was a more of a slow burn instead of an immediate and visceral emotional reaction, over the course of the day or two immediately following the race was...strange. Very calm, increasingly happy about it, increasingly chatty about the race.

WanderingEng  ·  4 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I haven't experienced emotion like that. I was struggling at the end of my marathon. But I do find now a year later that I'm still just as proud of doing it as I was then. The long distance is just so difficult it has a totally different emotion.

wasoxygen  ·  17 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Friday (Fake?) Fun Facts

She is actually French.

tacocat  ·  17 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I'm surprised she exists at all

wasoxygen  ·  21 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: US Treasuries Never Wrong - well, not really

    Even if your bonds mature in the middle of a recession and you find yourself with cash and few good fixed-income options, at least you made some initial yield, no?

Yes, you're ahead after Year 1 having bought the short-term bond with a higher rate, but now you have to find something to do with your cash for the next nine years, while your alter ego has the reliable income of the ten-year bond. You got more income but less predictability. If your options are poor after one year, you might end up behind over the decade.

I don't understand why the animation plots the yield curve over time against the actual 3-month yield.

    This is an animation showing the 3 month US treasury yield (blue line) versus the implied forward yield curve (red). The forward yield is estimated looking at the yields on 3, 6, 9 mo and 1, 2, 3, 5, 7 and 10 year government bonds. The blue highlighted area shows where the yield curve underestimated actual results and the ping highlighted area shows overestimations.

The red line is the yield curve from March 2007, pretty closely matching the official numbers from that month, so I don't see why it's "estimated" or "implied."

The gap between the 5-year rate in March 2007 (about 4.5%) is vertically contrasted with the March 2012 3-month rate (about 0.1%) and the "over-estimated area" between colored red. What is that supposed to represent? Five-year rates are not predictions of what three-month rates will be in five years.

    I place 70% confidence that a 10-year US Treasury compared to the 2-year US Treasury will invert sometime within a month of February 2019, and then within 12 months of that inversion we will see the peak of the bull run, and then 6 months from the peak will be a recession.... By the way, that differential today is .22%.

I love a prediction. Can we stipulate treasury.gov as an authorative source? They show rates of 2.92% for a two-year and 3.20% for a ten year T-bill, a gap of 0.28%. I don't know who calls the peak of a bull run, but NBER seems to have say-so over recession dating.

blackbootz  ·  21 days ago  ·  link  ·  

+1 for short-term bond demand-decrease explanation.

I think the animated yield curve is "estimated" or "implied" because of the interpolated yields along the line (there isn't a bond between 3 and 6 months, but the line implies there is one).

I, too, don't understand the purpose of the pink and blue shaded regions. I'm trying to wrack my brain because the animator issues economic advisory reports for a team of researchers so there must be a reason, right? I'm wondering if reaching out would be worthwhile, if 2014 is too long ago to remember, or if the animation was outsourced.

    I love a prediction. Can we stipulate treasury.gov as an authorative source? They show rates of 2.92% for a two-year and 3.20% for a ten year T-bill, a gap of 0.28%. I don't know who calls the peak of a bull run, but NBER seems to have say-so over recession dating.

Yes, I love a prediction, too. My prediction: inversion of 10-year rates and 2-year rates + or - one month of February 2018, with a peak of the stock market (as measured by Google ticker for S&P 500? I'm open to suggestion) 12 months after with a one month margin of error (so if an inversion occurs in January 2019, a stock market maxima has to occur within December 2019 - February 2020) with an NBER-marked recession within 6 months hence.

I'm tempted to say that a stock market peak has to occur within the following year, rather than within a narrow 3-month band, but the data is pretty strong that the post-inversion stock market peaks occur a healthy amount of time after, so the prediction will stay as such.

wasoxygen  ·  20 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I see; the yield curve chart is a smooth estimate of the rates you could imagine getting if terms were offered between the official periods like 6 months, 1, 5, or 10 years.

Per Mr. Laird, the animation is intended to show that today's rates are poor estimators for future rates. I can't imagine why anyone would think they are good estimators. It seems to me that today's 3-month rate is a better guess for the October 2023 3-month rate than today's 5-year rate, if you had to guess.

I wouldn't know where to begin to make such a prediction, so I am impressed by your effort. I will take the cowardly, easy route and predict that at least one of these will NOT happen:

• The 2-year T-bill rate is higher than the 10-year T-bill rate on any day from 1 January 2019 to 31 March 2019.

• If such an inversion occurs, then the S&P 500 Index as reported by Google will have a higher value on at least one of the 365 days before the inversion date, or during days 395 to 760 after the inversion first occurs, than it does at its highest value in the 394 days following the inversion.

• If such an inversion occurs, NBER will add a new business cycle to its list of business cycle reference dates with a "peak" date during the six months following the S&P 500 maximum described above.

My confidence level is 90%, not because I know what I am talking about, but because of the conjunction law.

blackbootz  ·  11 days ago  ·  link  ·  

When would be a good check-in date to resolve this? The conceivably-latest point at which my prediction would still hold would be August 2020 (if NBER states a recession started at least as late as February 2020).

wasoxygen  ·  10 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I’m free then.

wasoxygen  ·  38 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: THESE TECH COMPANIES WILL NEED MORE WOMEN ON THEIR BOARDS

IMHO we are here for different purposes.

I invite anyone who wants to learn more about the subject to examine the paper you cited in support of the claim that "doubling female participation in board membership increases profits." It says "The results find no impact of board gender quotas on firm performance" in the abstract, and has details about Norway in footnote 9 on page 7.

The paper does not support the claim that increasing female participation in board membership increases profits, rather it describes some correlations, with many qualifications about the uncertainty inherent in this kind of study.

As you have reminded us more than once, correlation does not imply causation.

flagamuffin  ·  37 days ago  ·  link  ·  

for the record i think it's hilarious you still talk to him, keep it up, i love it

kleinbl00  ·  38 days ago  ·  link  ·  

What purpose are you here for? What purpose do you suppose I'm here for? Because I'll note you responded to my other point here, and have made no response to this one. You could even address my principle point: that female participation on boards is good for the general public. Because that "responsibility of one" vs "responsibility for 13,000" angle, which was my point made to you, is hangin' right there.

Unanswered.

Much like the majority of conversations you've ever had where you're directly contradicted.

wasoxygen  ·  75 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Sci-Fi club no. 36: The Last Question discussion

    According to his autobiography In Memory Yet Green, Asimov coined the name in imitation of UNIVAC, an early mainframe computer. Asimov had assumed the name "Univac" denoted a computer with a single vacuum tube (it actually is an acronym for "Universal Automatic Computer"), and on the basis that a computer with many such tubes would be more powerful, called his fictional computer "Multivac". His later short story "The Last Question", however, expands the AC suffix to be "analog computer".

Dyson has other things on his mind.

wasoxygen  ·  139 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Running the 2018 Charlevoix Marathon

First finish is always a PR, congratulations! What was your longest distance in training?

Getting one done means you can skip the pre-race jitters next time and start off rested. Finishing without swearing you’ll never do it again is also a promising sign. When’s the next one?

SeanBot  ·  139 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Thanks! My longest distance was 18 miles which I did 13 days prior to the race on a Sunday. The Sunday before that I did 15, and then the Sunday before that I did 13.9. Besides those runs I was just doing anywhere from 5-10 miles for training and pushing myself as hard as I could each run.

    When's the next one?

I think I'm going to do the Detroit half marathon (maybe full) in October and then I'm debating where to do my next full sometime next year. Definitely want to travel, I'm considering Jackson Hole Marathon next year.

wasoxygen  ·  138 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Maybe you could get thenewgreen to join you in Detroit. Not many races requre travel documents to run across the border.

    If for any reason (for example, emergency, carrying a backpack) you are asked by CBP to identify yourself when crossing the border, you will be expected to present proper identification (WHTI compliant document). CBP actions may delay your re-entry into the U.S. Please note: it is not the intention of CBP to actively or randomly pull runners out of the race to review their documentation.

    Please note, the Ambassador Bridge Company and Detroit Windsor Tunnel LLC policy is to prohibit liquids. Runners are discouraged from carrying items on these portions of the course as they may be asked to either inspect or drop them. However, at the end of the day it is up to the runner’s discretion.

SeanBot  ·  60 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I tried to get thenewgreen to join me in Detroit but he bailed. Maybe he will join me in the Bahamas for their marathon on January 20. Any of you all are welcome to join as well wasoxygen ButterflyEffect WanderingEng I am registered already and will probably be down there for a week or so getting some diving in. Planning to dive with sharks for the first time.

ButterflyEffect  ·  138 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Did you see the runner who was recently detained for crossing the US-Canada border without ID?

wasoxygen  ·  204 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Doing science right: Have there been previous human civilizations on Earth?

    The roughly contemporary architecture at Jericho is devoid of artistic merit or large-scale sculpture, and Çatalhöyük, perhaps the most famous Anatolian Neolithic village, is 2,000 years later.

    At present Göbekli Tepe raises more questions for archaeology and prehistory than it answers. It remains unknown how a force large enough to construct, augment, and maintain such a substantial complex was mobilized and compensated or fed in the conditions of pre-sedentary society.

historyarch  ·  202 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Klaus Schmidt, who began the excavations, noted similarities in stone tools at Gobeckli Tepe and other sites which was one of his methods for dating. (see: https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/gobekli-tepe-the-worlds-first-temple-83613665/). Some of the male figures bear similarities to those found elsewhere as well. So clearly, Gobeckli Tepe was not isolated. From the Gobeckli website, the archaeologists date the most recent phase to be 9,600-8,000 BC (see" https://tepetelegrams.wordpress.com/the-research-project/ which also notes the comparison of carved figures). Dating these sites is imprecise but that could indicate only a 500 year gap which may actually be much less if estimates at Gobeckli Tepe and Çatalhöyük are off-- which is a distinct possibility.

Further, much of Gobeckli Tepe is unexcavated so it is risky to draw too many conclusions. It may have been abandoned in 9,000 or even 8,000 BC. There also may be other as yet undiscovered sites that will establish a clear line of development. Jericho and Çatalhöyük suffered devastating destruction in ancient times, there may have been much more sophisticated artistic endeavors that were destroyed, taken away or have yet to be found. Gobeckli Tepe was intentionally buried which likely means more is preserved.

I agree with everyone here that Gobeckli Tepe is fascinating, leaves us with many more questions than answers and may imply a different societal evolution than previously supposed.

wasoxygen  ·  206 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Everything you ever need to know about how the eye sees colors

Puffin beaks are fluorescent

    Unlike humans, birds have always known about the extra colours in the puffin bill. That's because they can see a whole other dimension of hues, said Dunning.

    Humans see colours that are a mix of red, blue and green light, he notes, while birds have a fourth colour in the mix — a property called tetrachromatic vision.

wasoxygen  ·  216 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Everything you ever need to know about how the eye sees colors

    But, alas, this color space has some unhelpful properties. For one, not all triplet values (also called tristimulus values) are physically possible. Consider the LMS coordinates (0, 1, 0). To physically achieve this coordinate, we would need to find some way of stimulating the M cones without stimulating the L or S cones at all. Because the M cone’s sensitivity curve significantly overlaps at least one of L or S at all wavelengths, this is impossible!

Impossible color!

wasoxygen  ·  217 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Running an Ethereum node in the Cloud

The idea of a virtual machine doing my bidding in a server farm somewhere intrigued me as well, though it took me a while to think of something to do with it. I used to host a web site on a headless server that lived behind the living room sofa, until one day I realized that I was paying more for electricity than I would for a web hosting service.

wasoxygen  ·  232 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: The first uber self-driving car fatality was the pedestrian's fault

That is a pretty good credit card offer. Barclays is wooing Yankees; their 1.5% rate on savings was enough to get me to finally switch from the account that was paying lunch money once a year.

wasoxygen  ·  234 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: November Has Come

Trivia and Easter eggs

The mountain climber, who fumbled the interview question by responding “What's Aleppo?” was of course Gary Johnson, but I forgot that the “someone else” was Green Party candidate Jill Stein, running with Ajamu Baraka who described Bernie Sanders as “media-driven pseudo-opposition” and “an ideological prop… of the logic and interests of the capitalist-imperialist settler state.” Instead of him we got Pence.

D. B. Cooper was, of course, the hijacker. “Power of strength” was part of a notorious quote: “When the students poured into Tiananmen Square, the Chinese government almost blew it. Then they were vicious, they were horrible, but they put it down with strength. That shows you the power of strength. Our country is right now perceived as weak.”

Bitcoin was about US$700 at the time.

44.44N 111.1W is just off a National Forest Development Road inside a small sliver of land where Yellowstone National Park overlaps Wyoming. According to a Michigan State University law professor, any crime committed in this area could not be prosecuted.

The site is gone now, but MakeMineCount.org (motto: “Everybody wins. Except Trump.”) was a real site where one could arrange to swap votes with another voter, to try and push swing states toward the desired direction.

Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary is a real title.

There were a handful of double-voting incidents in Colorado.

A 2015 report said that Florida election officials had to buy Zoom Pocket Modems on eBay to keep voting machines in order.

    Ken Terry, from Allen County, Ohio, told us that he feels like he is living in a technological time warp. When he ordered “Zip Disks” for his central tabulator, the package included literature that was more than a decade old. “When we purchased new Zip Disks in 2012, they had a coupon in the package that expired in 1999.”

The Internet of Things meltdown in October 2016 was apparently caused by a Minecraft scam.

The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact is, to my amazement, real. Participating members of the Electoral College pledge to be faithless when it appears that the popular vote will not be decisive. “I’m afraid the election is going to be rigged, I have to be honest.”

The Republic of Texas was a soverign country from 1836 to 1846. The Six Flags amusement park is named to recognize the various authorities in Texas over the years.

“I am in control here” was the famous claim by Secretary of State Alexander Haig when Ronald Reagan was shot.

From the White House it is a short drive down Pennsylvania Avenue to the Old Post Office which, after years of neglect, was converted into a Trump-branded hotel at 1100 Penn.

The Clinton campaign cancelled a fireworks display scheduled for 9:30 p.m.

CIT 0001 is the application for Canadian citizenship.

wasoxygen  ·  234 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Reduced-calorie diet shows signs of slowing ageing in people

Was 72 hours your longest fast? How was the break-fast?

mk  ·  234 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Yes, I've done it twice now. Typically I just skip breakfast, and about 1/2 the time, any sort of lunch.

Every couple of weeks or so I'll have breakfast and lunch, just to mix it up.

wasoxygen  ·  257 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Contra contemporary architecture

Impossible to respond to a subject that generates so many rabbit trails, e.g. Ponte City Tower.

wasoxygen  ·  257 days ago  ·  link  ·  

...which appears in the video for “Makeba”.