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kleinbl00  ·  4 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: The Voice of the ‘Intellectual Dark Web’

The John Birch Society Bloggers?

steve  ·  4 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I just spit my water all over my desk... thank you.

kleinbl00  ·  4 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Pubski: November 14, 2018

I went on a date once with a woman who accidentally revealed that her love of New York sprung from that time she was flown out to be on the Ricki Lake show.

kleinbl00  ·  6 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: mk's senolytic smoothie

Eriq La Salle once told the story of the 1lb of cheddar he ate on a bet. He ralphed for two hours, supposedly.

14lbs is a little less than three of these:

_refugee_  ·  5 days ago  ·  link  ·  

yeah my thought is that you'd at least be shitting terribly for days

OftenBen  ·  5 days ago  ·  link  ·  

The cheese itself wouldn't kill you but after 14 lb has had it's way with my colon I would beg for death.

kleinbl00  ·  8 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Weekly Photo Challenge: Still Life

The heart of the JLC:

I have a new eyepiece camera and my father-in-law gifted me an old Olympus SZ-30. It allows me to take ridiculous pictures. The letters in "SEVENTEEN" are less than a millimeter tall.

And because I'm impressed with all this crud:

moslydeaf  ·  6 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Awesome use of the challenge. I didn't expect something like that. Whats going on in the moving set of images?

kleinbl00  ·  6 days ago  ·  link  ·  

taintnun  ·  7 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Absolutely love the macro of the JLC. Something about it is extremely nostalgic, if that would even be the correct term to use.

psychoticmilkman  ·  7 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I like these! Also, be prepared...Macro challenge is totally coming in a few weeks.

kleinbl00  ·  7 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I had a bellows backintheday. More than a few moss landscapes.

kleinbl00  ·  12 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Democracy Participation Th{ubski}read

I've voted in every primary, general and special election since November 1992. I'm also old. I suspect there's a correlation.

'round here, we're Blue. So you most people vote absentee, you can vote online, you can print out a ballot online and mail it in, you can confirm whether your vote has been received and tabulated online. Funny how the bluer you are, the more people vote.

Or is it the other way 'round.

Quatrarius  ·  11 days ago  ·  link  ·  

get ready to have a streak competitor, old man

kleinbl00  ·  11 days ago  ·  link  ·  

BRING ALL YOUR FRIENDS

kleinbl00  ·  11 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Fucking businesses fucking up the fucking democratic process.

    I think I'm pretty consistent in my belief that what people do with and to their own body is their own business and government should stay the fuck out it.

Ain't nobody saying you can't drink soda. They're saying it should cost you more to drink soda. That's the fundamental basis of "sin tax" - if you want to drag down the general level of public health, you're going to pay into the public coffer. You've got an either-or thing: if Alabama wanted to tax abortions in order to pay for better sex ed, your average bleeding-heart liberal would jump all over that shit.

I pay extra for alcohol in WA state. That's annoying. Try and ban liquor? Now we've got a discussion. Taxes are not prohibitions, they're inhibitions and pretending otherwise is cloudy thinking at best.

kleinbl00  ·  11 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Democracy Participation Th{ubski}read

BRING ALL YOUR FRIENDS

kleinbl00  ·  18 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Southern California suffers its worst housing slump in over a decade

I watch markets by watching houses. I care more about ones around me.

Eight months ago I saw houses being listed for $300k more than they were bought a year previously. Flippers in full freakout.

This month I see houses being sold for $100k less than they were listed for a month previously. Flippers in full retreat.

As of two months ago, the Seattle market was publicly and officially down 15% year over year. As of this week, the Seattle market is privately and unofficially down 10% since last month.

Shit's gonna rip.

WanderingEng  ·  18 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Houses are down here, but I don't follow closely enough if it's just late season or a larger trend. A nice house next to a coworker was on the market for months, left and came back listed 10% lower and got an offer. Stuff is selling, but not like it was six months ago.

blackbootz  ·  18 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Wuh oh.

Any speculations why? Run of the mill late-cycle consumer indebtedness?

kleinbl00  ·  18 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Prices are too fucking high.

Let's say you're me. Let's say you're an engineer fresh outta college and your starting salary is $54k. You buy the house for $175k with $10k down and interest rates at 4%. You're paying 800 a month.

Now let's say you're me if I were the age of the kids graduatig today. Let's say your starting salary is $69k, which is average. You buy the house for $425k with $40k down and interest rates at 5%. You're paying $2000 a month.

Same house, same market, same education. Oops. Not same education.

At some point shit costs too much for people to buy it. And if it still needs to be sold, it has to become cheaper.

ButterflyEffect  ·  18 days ago  ·  link  ·  

You've described my situation exactly. Could I buy a house? I mean, yeah. Am I going to? Not at these prices, I don't want to be sidled with that.

kleinbl00  ·  19 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Trump targeting birthright citizenship with executive order

Sure. Bread and circuses for the proles. But listen:

- The stock market is now negative for the year. Not "negative once you remove FAANG" but negative for the year.

- The housing market is nose-diving. I know Seattle better than I know any other market, but Seattle is down 15% year-over-year and I'm seeing 10% per month price drops. Meanwhile, the average new home loan rate has topped 5%, Jerome Powell looks to be running the Fed more like Paul Volcker than Ben Bernanke and we're in "hold onto your butts" territory from a financial perspective.

- The Treasury Department is issuing $450b in new debt this morning bringing total debt to $1.37b, double the 2017 number.

- Jobs numbers aren't nearly so stellar once you filter out the part-timers and apply the discouraged. Meanwhile unemployment for women is much higher than unemployment for men.

Trump also promised new tax cuts before the election... and Congress ain't even in session. "Birthright citizenship" is the 14th Amendment. It takes an Amendment to repeal and Amendment. Yeah I get that this riles up his base and makes all them MAGA hats bob up'n'down but that doesn't make it policy.

kleinbl00  ·  25 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Pubski: October 24, 2018

"I don't like the way that went down because X. Next time I'm going to focus on Y because Z." Everyone fucks up. The trick is to visibly and demonstrably learn from your fuckups.

    An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made, in a narrow field.

Niels Bohr

Hey, you're a consultant now, aren't you? Technically speaking? You need my consultant joke, which I told every time I met with a contractor or owner because I was young and they were resentful.

Kaisinel  ·  25 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I believe that you don't have to learn from your own mistakes and it's perfectly fine to learn from someone else's. What matters though, is understanding that something went wrong. Accepting being wrong. Understanding what is wrong. That is w g at matters.

veen  ·  25 days ago  ·  link  ·  

    Everyone fucks up.

It's funny that rationally, I know it's obviously true, but since it doesn't jive with my perfectionism it doesn't feel true for me. (Which is also naive, I know.) Cognitive dissonance's a bitch.

Loll'ed at the consultant joke. Still relevant.

lil  ·  24 days ago  ·  link  ·  

kleinbl00  ·  25 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Why HTC will only accept Bitcoin and Ethereum for its First Blockchain Phone

In technical analysis terms ETH appears to have found a floor around $200. Keep in mind that "technical analysis terms" means kind of the same thing as "palm reading" and is based on what the graph does, not on why it does it.

The fundamental force driving ETH pricing right now is the fact that the Ethereum Foundation is currently dickering about what to do about their difficulty bomb hard fork. The Foundation is agreed that forking is necessary to put off the difficulty bomb because proof-of-stake has been delayed.

My caution to you is that the fundamentals driving cryptocurrency are obscure and technical while the sentiment driving cryptocurrency is florid and subject to whim and manipulation. My other caution to you is that the price swings in forex are enough to give the average stock trader a heart attack, the price swings in bitcoin are enough to give the average forex trader a heart attack and the price swings in ETH are enough to give the average BTC trader a heart attack. Don't risk more than you're willing to lose, lose quickly, and lose in a dramatic fashion with all your friends and neighbors hectoring you for your stupidity so they can feel better about not participating in the first place.

You haven't lived until you've had a financial planner tell you he'll manage narcotics fortunes but he considers crypto unclean.

kleinbl00  ·  27 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: US Treasuries Never Wrong - well, not really

That's a lovely animation. Worth the price of admission right there.

So here's the thing. Ever heard of Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle? We don't need to get into the technicalities of it; basically it boils down to the better you know a particle's momentum, the worse you know it's position and vice versa. This is seriously fucked up from a classical mechanics standpoint because what it proves, mathematically, is that "observation" (non-interfering interaction) changes the result.

You can not draw a straight line from physics to economics no matter how hard some economists would like to. What you can do is note that it's a vast interdependent system and that interacting with it changes things. The bigger your interaction, the bigger the change. You can also note that fundamentally, economics is a person selling something to another person times every person with money or product and that it can't help but be shaped by sentiment.

The yield curve is a function of the ratio of two numbers. One number is the interest rate on a long-term contract. The other number is the interest rate on a short-term contract. Those interest rates reflect the agreed-upon price that lenders and borrowers interact at. Short term contracts reflect agility and uncertainty; long term contracts reflect stability and dependability. CRUCIAL ASPECT: I want to make money with my money, so I have to lend it out. In order for me to get any interest on it, someone has to borrow it so I'm looking to lend. The question is for how much and how long.

Let's say rates are at 4%. If I'm willing to lock my rates for ten years at 4% I think that rates aren't going to be hella higher for the next ten years. If I think they're going to climb to 5% or 6% I'd rather have stuff in short-term because then I can re-sell my money to make more money in three years. But if I think they're going to fall to 3% I wanna lock up as much as I can at 4%. And remember, compounding is king: $100 for 10 years at 4% is $148 but $100 for 15 years at 3% is $155.

What you're seeing when the curve inverts is a consensus projection that rates are going to fall. A consensus that rates are going to fall is a consensus, fundamentally, that the central banks are going to lower interest rates. A consensus that the central banks are going to lower interest rates is a prediction that the economy is going to need interference in order to function properly.

It's fair to say that an observation of the yield curve is an observation of sentiment. Sentiment, really, is what makes markets - the desire to play the ponies. Pointing at Bernanke is legit - he makes much in his book about how everything he says is parsed and reparsed for trade signals which is a tacit admission that the world's economy is dependent on what a bunch of dudes want it to be.

Maybe you're reading the wrong stuff. It's been popping up on a semi-daily basis for me for a couple weeks but then, I seek out the geopolitics.

If you're watching CNN or MSNBC it's the all-the-time Trump Show. This allows stuff like China's ethnic cleansing and reeducation camps in Tibet to get a pass. It means you don't know about Chinese labor protests. Americans (all nationalities) care a lot more about what's going on within their borders than without and while we've been watching our democracy suffer the Chinese have, too.

It's not that the world is pretending it's "business as usual" it's that Interpol only works by international cooperation and when one fifth of the world's population and fifteen percent of the world's economy decides not to play by the rules, your options for reprisal or correction are limited. And the tricky thing about government crackdowns, according to George Friedman, is that whenever a country veers authoritarian it shows that they're weak, not strong. Xi Jinping's current moves don't telegraph a leader confident in his position, they indicate a regime facing pressure and that can break in difficult, unfortunate ways.

Like kidnapping the chief of Interpol.

Quatrarius  ·  28 days ago  ·  link  ·  

where do you get your news bud, i'm curious

kleinbl00  ·  28 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I get phone alerts from:

- WaPo

- NYT

- WSJ

I pay for:

- NYT

- WSJ

- Geopolitical Futures

- The Week

- Over My Shoulder

Every morning I read:

- Daily Beast Cheat Sheet

- The Week Top 10

- The Week Daily Business Briefing

- NYT briefing

- NYT opinion

- WSJ Briefing

- WSJ Hedge Fund Manager's Briefing (or whatever the hell they call it)

- WSJ Capital Journal

- WSJ Tech briefing

- WaPo Today's Worldview

- Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Breakfast

- WatchPro's whatevertheycallit (only if you give a shit about watches)

When it shows up every week or so I read

- NYT The Interpreter

- Rohit Bhargava's Non-obvious

- MIT's Blockchain newsletter

- The Engineer's tech briefings (UK)

- Quill & Pad's newsletter (which only matters if you care about watches)

- a dozen other things I'm forgetting about

And sweet baby jesus every now and then I find something interesting from outraged liberal friends on Facebook.

tacocat  ·  27 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I don't think I see you post a lot from the week

kleinbl00  ·  27 days ago  ·  link  ·  
tacocat  ·  27 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I said I think leaving room for being wrong. For some reason I notice The Daily Beast. 🤷‍♂️

kleinbl00  ·  28 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I should also mention that I get a hilarious newsletter from a hedge fund that used to be in Zurich until Swiss banking laws changed to favor greater disclosure and poof the Zurich - based hedge fund became a Liechtenstein-based hedge fund.

Nothing at all suspicious about that.

tacocat  ·  28 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I've heard about it several times on NPR. I watched a good chunk of cable news a couple months ago and it's a fucking cesspool. I was miserable for reasons other than my poor health at the time

kleinbl00  ·  30 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: How much would you pay for an ice cube?

I just finished reading Billion Dollar Whale, which reinforced the notion that for the nouveau riche, the appearance of wealth often comes from wasting it.

I suspect this product is designed for people who want to be confused for Kardashians.

kleinbl00  ·  30 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: NY's AG Is Trying To Tie Major ISPs To Those Bogus Net Neutrality Comments

    that's a decent litmus test for how entrenched the kleptocracy has become.

the paper's red, dude.