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ButterflyEffect  ·  119 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Your Children’s Yellowstone Will Be Radically Different

What about water availability? That seems like something that's going to be a huge deal moving forward. Especially the Rockies and West in America, and obviously every place near the equator worldwide. How do manage 5 year droughts, how do we collect water during storms and safely store it in aquafors.

snoodog  ·  119 days ago  ·  link  ·  

That’s exactly what we need to figure out, certain cities may need to be abandoned and practices that drain aquifers need to stopped. Thats the kind of forward thinking that can help mitigate some of the impacts for future generations. Essentially you need a comprehensive plan on dealing with the impact of climate change. You can’t stop Contries from polluting but you can invest in technology and infrastructure that will mitigate some of the impact. It’s not a perfect solution but it’s better than the current plans of pissing into the wind through tiny reduction efforts.

ButterflyEffect  ·  119 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Your Children’s Yellowstone Will Be Radically Different

    At this point climate change has happened we need to work on dealing with the consequences and effects as they happen and affect our citizens.

What does that look like to you?

snoodog  ·  119 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Probably need to build up infrastructure like sea walls in areas that can be saved. Update flood prevention systems and dams, storm surge areas. Fund programs to breed seeds that are more heat tolerant. Model where future rains are going to occur and figure out how to manage, and store the water.

There are likely opportunities to terraform areas to level off temperature swings.

Ocean research is critical as well. They are getting f-up and we don’t understand them well at all. We need to collect dna for bio specimens that we can restore later when technology allows it.

Those things are a much better use of money than Current carbon reduction efforts.

ButterflyEffect  ·  119 days ago  ·  link  ·  

What about water availability? That seems like something that's going to be a huge deal moving forward. Especially the Rockies and West in America, and obviously every place near the equator worldwide. How do manage 5 year droughts, how do we collect water during storms and safely store it in aquafors.

snoodog  ·  119 days ago  ·  link  ·  

That’s exactly what we need to figure out, certain cities may need to be abandoned and practices that drain aquifers need to stopped. Thats the kind of forward thinking that can help mitigate some of the impacts for future generations. Essentially you need a comprehensive plan on dealing with the impact of climate change. You can’t stop Contries from polluting but you can invest in technology and infrastructure that will mitigate some of the impact. It’s not a perfect solution but it’s better than the current plans of pissing into the wind through tiny reduction efforts.

ButterflyEffect  ·  120 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Your Children’s Yellowstone Will Be Radically Different

    Change is its natural state.

    The human effect on climate is one aspect of change.

Change is its natural state until you look at CO2 emissions, global temperature rises, forest fire incidences, glacial levels, etc. etc. from the industrial era on. It's an extremely significant and extremely unnatural effect we have had on our climate. How can you possibly say otherwise, or have such a defeatist attitude? Mapping Yellowstone? Fuck off, dude. Any learnings or mapping will happen concurrently with other changes around the world and it will be too late to do much about it at that point.

We are already experiencing it. Go step on a glacier anywhere in Washington.

goobster  ·  119 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Reading comprehension fail, my friend. I did not say the things you are responding to.

ButterflyEffect  ·  119 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Can you clarify what you did say, then? If I am not intelligent enough in my reading comprehension I would appreciate help in developing an understanding of your point(s). I want to ask you point blank: Do you believe in human driven climate change?

Edit: Also, you do realize that that was a very demeaning way of engaging?

snoodog  ·  119 days ago  ·  link  ·  

It’s already too late, we probably would have had to start to curb greenhouse emissions in the 80s or earlier to get where we would have needed to be today. At this point climate change has happened we need to work on dealing with the consequences and effects as they happen and affect our citizens.

The worlds major polluters aren’t curbing emissions fast enough to make anything the rest of us do matter significantly. Classic Tragedy of the commons type problem

ButterflyEffect  ·  119 days ago  ·  link  ·  

    At this point climate change has happened we need to work on dealing with the consequences and effects as they happen and affect our citizens.

What does that look like to you?

snoodog  ·  119 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Probably need to build up infrastructure like sea walls in areas that can be saved. Update flood prevention systems and dams, storm surge areas. Fund programs to breed seeds that are more heat tolerant. Model where future rains are going to occur and figure out how to manage, and store the water.

There are likely opportunities to terraform areas to level off temperature swings.

Ocean research is critical as well. They are getting f-up and we don’t understand them well at all. We need to collect dna for bio specimens that we can restore later when technology allows it.

Those things are a much better use of money than Current carbon reduction efforts.

ButterflyEffect  ·  119 days ago  ·  link  ·  

What about water availability? That seems like something that's going to be a huge deal moving forward. Especially the Rockies and West in America, and obviously every place near the equator worldwide. How do manage 5 year droughts, how do we collect water during storms and safely store it in aquafors.

snoodog  ·  119 days ago  ·  link  ·  

That’s exactly what we need to figure out, certain cities may need to be abandoned and practices that drain aquifers need to stopped. Thats the kind of forward thinking that can help mitigate some of the impacts for future generations. Essentially you need a comprehensive plan on dealing with the impact of climate change. You can’t stop Contries from polluting but you can invest in technology and infrastructure that will mitigate some of the impact. It’s not a perfect solution but it’s better than the current plans of pissing into the wind through tiny reduction efforts.

ButterflyEffect  ·  119 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Your Children’s Yellowstone Will Be Radically Different

Can you clarify what you did say, then? If I am not intelligent enough in my reading comprehension I would appreciate help in developing an understanding of your point(s). I want to ask you point blank: Do you believe in human driven climate change?

Edit: Also, you do realize that that was a very demeaning way of engaging?

ButterflyEffect  ·  120 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: An Aging Marathoner Tries to Run Fast After Age 40

Do you have a heart rate monitor? Thinking it's about time I bought one.

WanderingEng  ·  120 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I do have a heart rate monitor. I currently use a Garmin 230 which uses the chest strap monitor. I found it really useful when I was first starting to run further because it would alarm when my heart rate was too high. Now that I know what too high feels like, I don't really need it. It didn't alarm once in my recent half.

The other fancy gizmos intrigue me, especially stuff that reports imbalance between sides. I'd need the fancy watch for that.

ButterflyEffect  ·  120 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Suicide Increasing Among American Workers

Yes, it is. Here's a lot more information.

    “The correlation between unemployment and suicide has been observed since the 19th century. People looking for work are about twice as likely to end their lives as those who have jobs.”

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/suicide-and-the-older-unemploy

krmatthews  ·  120 days ago  ·  link  ·  

See, this is why introducing a smart AI could be a bad idea in the future. If people are committing suicide now due to unemployment, how much more do you think the suicide rate will increase once there are ASI robots that will practically replace human workers? We can't compete with them, how are we supposed to survive with smart AI and automation?

ButterflyEffect  ·  120 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: An Aging Marathoner Tries to Run Fast After Age 40

Happy to hear I'm on a very similar schedule to the author of this article.

    When I don’t have a marathon on the horizon, I’ll end up covering 30 to 40 miles a week. In the three months leading up to a marathon, I’ll do 20-mile runs on the weekend and speed up some of my commutes. Those weeks, I run closer to 50 or 60 miles.

Following a program is essential if you're serious about running a "good" (whatever that means to you, or Boston in some cases...) time. People like Jack Daniels, the physiologists in this article, and elsewhere praise VO2 max estimates or actual studies, and looping in interval and other types of training into your schedule. Running fast is a delicate balance.

WanderingEng  ·  120 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I'm definitely not hitting the same miles, though I may try to get closer next year. Last year I peaked at 40 miles, and it damn near killed me. This year my injury was after sustained 30 mile weeks, but that wasn't specific to weekly miles but rather muscle/form issues. I'm hopeful I can push past that plateau.

A lot of marathon training plans max at 40 miles. These are the plans for people googling "marathon training plan" and not elite or serious experienced runner plans. For me I think if I'm doing a lot of cross training, 40 miles is an acceptable peak.

I might buy a Garmin 935.

ButterflyEffect  ·  120 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Do you have a heart rate monitor? Thinking it's about time I bought one.

WanderingEng  ·  120 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I do have a heart rate monitor. I currently use a Garmin 230 which uses the chest strap monitor. I found it really useful when I was first starting to run further because it would alarm when my heart rate was too high. Now that I know what too high feels like, I don't really need it. It didn't alarm once in my recent half.

The other fancy gizmos intrigue me, especially stuff that reports imbalance between sides. I'd need the fancy watch for that.

ButterflyEffect  ·  122 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Space and Space Launch Updates

Are there other agencies capable of doing what NASA does? Moving a project schedule up four years is incredible to me.

francopoli  ·  122 days ago  ·  link  ·  

India's Space Program has an active mars mission, is planning lunar landing missions and announced a manned program including hiring astronauts and building the spacecraft. The Indian manned capsule is expected to launch in 2021-2022.

China's Program is the third manned program, is the third nation to soft-land anywhere else in the solar system, excluding the ESA's Huygens lander at Titan which was an ESA/NASA collaboration. The far side lunar lander is launching next month, the first time ANYONE has done that. The Chinese Space Station is being built and will be launched in the next 3-4 years if they stick to the schedule.

The ESA is huge with a list of firsts rivaling NASA. Name a big budget science program and they were a part of it.

Japan is small, but they do miracles with what they do have. As of this writing they are the only nation to return material from outside the earth-moon system. They have an active Venus mission, some of the best weather satellites and earthquake monitoring gear, and of course an active asteroid sample return mission. They are also a major ISS partner.

Australia has big plans with their new agency. aiming to be a government partner in the commercial space industry. Funding is on the exploratory level now and they are in the works for building a space port.

Israel is the smallest nation with a dedicated space program, and is going to send a moon mission on a Falcon 9 next year.

Brazil and Argentina are in talks of combining their aerospace to form a space program, but I've not heard anything recently; with the latest election results in Brazil, I don't see any movement on this in the near time.

That is off the top of my head. Long and short of it is that there is trillions of dollars waiting in space and we are in the "ohh shiney" phase stumbling into the "I can make money doing this" phase.

OftenBen  ·  122 days ago  ·  link  ·  

If you combined the lifting capacity of all of these different organizations and gave them a unified goal how much could they put in orbit?

francopoli  ·  121 days ago  ·  link  ·  

The problem is not politics, its physics. The Apollo Program was sent into space on a 50 story building made with some of the most advanced metals yet created then filled with high explosives. All that to get about 60-70 tons into space; the "payload" ie the people and the return capsule, was under 2500 pounds when all was said and done. The rocket equation is a bitch that will be obeyed no matter what you want to do. As long as we are using chemical rockets, we are bound to the limits of fuel and engine efficiency. No manner of cash will change the laws of nature. The only way to play with the rocket equation, in a chemical rocket, is to burn lightweight fuel, very hot, and kick it out the back as fast as possible.

The Falcon Heavy will have a max, realistic, payload of 80 metric Tons, limited by the size of the fairing (the part on the nose) and will be closer to 60-70 tons when it starts lofting payloads. these numbers are to low earth orbit, ie where the space station is. To go to the moon, cut the weight in half as the other half of the payload is the fuel to go to the moon. To land? Cut in half again to get a guess on usable payload numbers. The BFR is going to be a massive metal tube full of fuel, with the volume of a 60 story skyscraper, and it is looking, realistically, like a max weight into space of 110-120 tons. (FYI, Musk is saying 300tons to Low earth Orbit and the guys I follow that build working space hardware and engines are all doubting this.) The main benefit is that the rocket is going to be reusable which drops the price per pound to space to something that makes a real space-based economy viable.

To put this in perspective, the Shuttle weighed 99 tons empty. It had a payload of 50-60 tons. It used the most advanced, most efficient engines ever built; they were using hydrogen, as hot as you can get it, sending the exhaust out as fast as it could possible go, and not explode the engines or melt them. Then you had to add in the biggest solid rocket motors ever made JUST TO GET THE THING MOVING. The Solid rocket boosters provided some 75% of the oomph to get the shuttle to orbit. Then you had to deal with the fun and engineering of dealing with hydrogen. Short answer? Liquid Hydrogen is shit to deal with. It seeps into whatever metal you make its container out of, the tanks cannot be reused (unless there has been a breakthrough I am not aware of) and the stuff is so light that you need massive tanks to hold it.

The only way to get more efficiency is to use ion engines, but the thrust is so light you will never get off the ground. Once in space? nothing right now is better. On the ground? Burn some kind of fuel in an engine is the only game in town. If all you need is a gentile nudge and have a lot of time, the efficiency of an ion engine is some factor of 100 better than chemical rockets. The total "delta V" aka change in speed of the Dawn mission, for example, was in the order of 10 kilometers per second which is just not possible with the limits of the current tech.

The modern next-gen rockets are all going to use super chilled, densified liquid methane, which has its own issues. Because methane is much denser than H2 you get more actual hydrogen in a volume, the molecules don't imbrittle your tanks and you can reuse the tanks, piping etc. LCH4 is also much warmer that H2 so you need less energy, insulation etc to handle it. Oh and you can use solar energy on places like Mars to make Methane and Oxygen out of the air and dirt. One tank design was using liquid oxygen pipes as the cooling for the liquid methane, which helps if you want redundant systems to reduce weight. That big tank on the Shuttle Stack? Almost all Hydrogen storage That little, tiny tank on top is the LOX. The problem with methane is that darn carbon atom. CH4 and O2 make water and CO2... if the engine is not hot enough and engineered well enough. If the engine is not engineered correctly, you get a carbon soot covering your impellers, turbines and combustion chambers instead of that CO2 and that causes all kinds of issues. Most of these are being solved now as the main rocket fuel for, say SpaceX, is avionic kerosene which is why the exhaust looks "sooty" on the launch videos. They traded some of the chemical efficiency of the engine for reliability and lower cost. With Methane, from what I have read in the past, the same tricks to prevent soot in the engine won't work because Methane needs higher temperatures and tighter tolerances, and it is harder to use the fuel-rich mixture they currently use to cool the engines and parts.

The Sea Dragon is the largest rocket that I am aware of that had actual design work done on it outside of science fiction. The sound from the rocket was such that everything within 50 miles of the engine bell would be shook to dead or deafened. That rocket had a max payload of 500 tons, on paper-take about 75% of that for the real value. Then there is the cost to pound and do we really need to send a payload that large into orbit any more?

The short answer to your question? 100 tons usable cargo to orbit reliably is doable and a realistic goal; if cash is thrown at the problem, they can make the rockets cheap and reusable reducing the price per kg to orbit. Any more than that is limited by chemistry, physics, and the politics of what you need to launch such a large rocket.

kleinbl00  ·  120 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Frontline quoted a 70s-era Senator Al Gore about the time the Columbia broke up as saying "If we could launch the Shuttle with a bay full of feathers and have it return with a bay full of gold, we'd only lose $200m per flight."

At modern prices, 50 tons of gold at today's price is $850m. The average shuttle mission cost was $450m.

francopoli  ·  120 days ago  ·  link  ·  

The shuttle was amazing. Bleeding edge technology that pushed just about every boundary of what was possible in space. The problem with that? Pushing boundaries is very expensive. Multiple people- from the people at the Planeteary Society, Phil Plait, some JPL people I know for example- believe that the shuttle's high cost is why we have not left low earth orbit in 50 years. A program like the Dyna-Soar or likewise would have been a factor of 10 cheaper leaving more money for things like a moon base, bigger planetary robotic missions etc.

I love the shuttle. I love listening to Shuttle astronauts talk about what it was like to be a shuttle astronaut. But my admiration for the program is cooled by the reality of what it was able to do, its costs and all the compromises that went into the design to get the funding. I saw two landings. One of my big regrets in life is that I never got to see a launch.

am_Unition  ·  119 days ago  ·  link  ·  

When I was about 10, my dad woke me up around 2 or 3 AM, with a twinkle in his eye. He told me to put on my coat and come downstairs and meet him on the front porch. I asked why, but he said it was a surprise. He told me to look up into the sky, near the northwestern horizon. Out from behind a tree emerged this bright, moving light, shimmering, and leaving a trail of smoke behind it. At first, I thought it was fuckin' aliens. I remember my spine tingling like it never had before. He explained that we were watching the space shuttle re-entering the atmosphere, and I just stood there, jaw on the front lawn, until it vanished to the east.

Yeah, my dad is the shit.

kleinbl00  ·  120 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I was so mad at the shuttle I refused to see it hauled through the streets of Compton. I mean, I coulda walked.

The shuttle was a dare the NRO made to NASA and NASA called their bluff.

OftenBen  ·  121 days ago  ·  link  ·  

You are a kickass person. I have so much reading to do! I've never heard of the Sea Dragon before!

I've never been a happier badger.

ButterflyEffect  ·  126 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Pubski: November 14, 2018

Depends on how big the gun was...or, you know, just generally absolutely insane.

Did you have an indication this guy was into guns from his Bumble profile?

_refugee_  ·  126 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Nope! Nor from the pictures either (I've seen some pictures of guys where they're hunting or have guns with them on Bumble, which seems like a more subtle way to kind of give people a heads' up what you are into.)

cgod  ·  124 days ago  ·  link  ·  

My sister in law has been touring the country in a converted sprinter van this year.

She mentioned that pretty much every guy in Montana's profile was with an animal he killed or with a hunting rifle. I don't think she got much action in Montana.

flagamuffin  ·  124 days ago  ·  link  ·  

i have considered doing this many times and would like to hear more about it

does she stay at campsites? or walmart parking lots? what does she eat? etc.

if she's doing a travel blog or something link it/message me/whatever

cgod  ·  124 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I'll find out where her vlog is posted at, I don't follow it.

A nice conversion is pretty spendy.

flagamuffin  ·  124 days ago  ·  link  ·  

i hate videos so i won't watch that but thanks for replying.

ever since i read travels with charley i figured it would at least be a pretty good retirement plan

ButterflyEffect  ·  126 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Pubski: November 14, 2018

Hah, I'm on the other side of that circle. Spent enough time trying this year and gave a much greater understanding of my wants and needs...which is a lot longer conversation but boils down to "no dating unless I meet a mountaineer or trail runner who's my age bracket and single."

ButterflyEffect  ·  128 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Hubski Race Report: A Foray into Ultrarunning

Always! Love talking about this stuff with you and waso. Let us know how the half went!!!

WanderingEng  ·  128 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Stealthily posted!

wasoxygen

ButterflyEffect  ·  130 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Hubski Race Report: A Foray into Ultrarunning

Oh, got it. So yeah, it could look this this:

Monday: 6 miles, all easy

Tuesday: 9 miles, mixture of half marathon pace and easy

Wednesday: 10 miles, all easy

Thursday: 8 miles, mixture of threshold and half marathon pace with easy warmup and cool down. This usually ends up being two or three separate runs strung together

Saturday: 10-13 miles, mostly easy

Sunday: 16-20 miles, long run

WanderingEng  ·  129 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Awesome, thanks! I may bug you about what I think I'd like to do for training as a sort of sanity check. I'm already signed up for one full marathon next year (Milwaukee Lakefront that I was able to defer from this year). The Madison Marathon is tomorrow, and holy shit I wish I was running it. I'm giddy just running the half and knowing I can stay and cheer for the full. I know two people running their first fulls tomorrow. I'm toying with signing up for it next year. My body broke training for one this year, but I'm hopeful I can manage that next year after PT.

ButterflyEffect  ·  128 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Always! Love talking about this stuff with you and waso. Let us know how the half went!!!

WanderingEng  ·  128 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Stealthily posted!

wasoxygen