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ButterflyEffect's comments
ButterflyEffect  ·  7 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Andrew Yang to End Presidential Campaign

thenewgreen thoughts?

thenewgreen  ·  7 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I called it half way through the last debate. I actually wrote his campaign via social media and said I was disappointed. We all worked hard, donated our money, told our friends and colleagues about him; we got him on the debate stage. What did he do up there? Nothing.

Klobuchar on the other hand seized the moment. She inspired people to the point where she went from a dark horse candidate to #3 in NH. Had Yang had that sort of debate performance he could have been in the top 4 maybe even the top 3.

He will have a seat at the table if while we the candidate is. He will be back too. Given that this was his first foray in to politics and it was at this level, he has FAR surpassed expectations. He has built an engine, a following and a brand. He will be back. If Trump wins, and I fear he will, Yang 2024 is very likely.

ButterflyEffect  ·  6 days ago  ·  link  ·  

You and I share the same fear about Trump...thanks for sharing a critical viewpoint of a candidate you’ve been pulling for this election cycle. I wonder if it’s the lack of big stage experience that resulted in his debate performance.

Same thing just happened to me.

kleinbl00  ·  8 days ago  ·  link  ·  

curses

ButterflyEffect  ·  14 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: The Sky Is Falling (PDF)

I’m still interested in this idea. Have a couple roadblocks to it though.

kleinbl00  ·  13 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Yeah it was gonna be a lot easier when Ethereum was gonna make me a billionaire

ButterflyEffect  ·  14 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: The Sky Is Falling (PDF)

I would like more analysis that uses the word "frothiness" please.

    These are just further evidences of the levels of frothiness achieved in equity

    markets today

Maybe I will be able to buy a house in a few years after all.

You know I have been on and off thinking about investing in coffee and cocoa commodities.

https://www.macrotrends.net/2535/coffee-prices-historical-chart-data

kleinbl00  ·  14 days ago  ·  link  ·  

You laugh but among the bearish "froth" simply means "multiple bubbles."

I think we oughtta invest in cocoa fields. But you've heard my pitch.

nil  ·  14 days ago  ·  link  ·  

    I think we oughtta invest in cocoa fields.

It's a good market. If you're a wealthy German businessman and want to fuck around here's how you do it. Buy a farm in Nicaragua and pay to have industrial processing equipment and accomodation installed. Hire a seasonal workforce and pay for their room/board and meals. Pay them based on how much they cacao or coffee they pick. $240/month, or roughly 4X what the average labourer makes in the region. Build an evil castle if you want.

Step 5: Profit. The world runs on coffee and chocolate.

kleinbl00  ·  14 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I think there's a better way.

I think a reasonable venture capital firm could fund cacao cooperatives on Hawaii. I think that in five years they'd have American chocolate that they can sell varietals grown in a climate that is only going to get more appropriate for cacao as global warming gets worse. I think if macadamia nuts can make a few select Hawaiians rich where Hershey bailed hard, the farmers growing tomatoes and other subsistence bullshit could probably make a pretty good living switching over to an export crop.

I would love to get an NGO involved in building out a varietal cacao culture in Hawaii. I think it would be the best thing for the economy since before statehood.

ButterflyEffect  ·  14 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I’m still interested in this idea. Have a couple roadblocks to it though.

kleinbl00  ·  13 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Yeah it was gonna be a lot easier when Ethereum was gonna make me a billionaire

ButterflyEffect  ·  16 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Republicans defeat Democratic bid to hear witnesses in Trump trial

I feel like your statement is true up until 2010. Then Citizens United happened and 2010-current it sure doesn’t feel like that’s how political authority happens.

ButterflyEffect  ·  18 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Republicans defeat Democratic bid to hear witnesses in Trump trial

You know, of all of us on this site you’re far down the list of people I’d expect a comment like that from. Says a lot about where we are at.

mk  ·  17 days ago  ·  link  ·  

All political authority is granted by the people. It is the purpose of government to serve the people. Trump actions subverted that authority, and the GOP protected him, not the system that protects the people. The GOP failed a critical task of governance.

am_Unition  ·  17 days ago  ·  link  ·  

When 75% of America thinks you should call witnesses, and then you don't call witnesses, that lets me know that my concept of your path to staying in power (re-election) may be flawed, or that re-election is not your primary concern. Obviously, one of my current side projects is trying to find out why.

mk  ·  17 days ago  ·  link  ·  

They think we’ll forget by November. They are mostly right. Although they’ve definitely played the Trump gambit. The GOP is going to own everything he does or that comes to light between now and then.

kleinbl00  ·  17 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I am more optimistic than you. Ironically, it's an optimism borne of cynicism.

Remember: Trump didn't win the popular vote. He won the electoral vote in the least-representative election since Rutherford Hayes won in 1876, against one of the least-popular Democrats in history. He carried his base, and his base were energized.

All the Republicans are fighting for at this point is that base. That base is calling the shots. But they were promised a wall, they were promised that they'd get sick of winning and they were promised that the swamp would be drained. What they've gotten is some corner-case owning of the libs.

    When I confront my retired 'boomer parents about any of this, they get so uncomfortable that they clam up, and beg to change the subject after about three or four minutes. It takes every bit of self-restraint in my being to keep myself from launching into a tirade about how their unwillingness to even think about uncomfortable subjects is some of the most pathetic, cowardly, and disgraceful behavior that I've ever seen. Willful ignorance. A staple of normie 'boomers. Trump wouldn't be president without it.

The question, then, is what percentage of Trump voters are currently experiencing that discomfort... and what percentage of them are going to brave the polls to put their stamp of approval on it?

Frontline did four hours on "how we got here." In typical reserved documentary fashion they lay out the case that populistRepublican behavior begat populist Republican behavior such that no one can afford to vote what principles they have left. The Republican party is on a path of self destruction. Everyone knows it. But their livelihoods are tied to feeding it.

When the polls say 75% of the country wants witnesses and you vote for no witnesses, you're acknowledging that you're suppressing your own voter turnout. When your boss was elected on "drain the swamp" and you're actively plugging the dam for him, you're suppressing your own voter turnout. When you insist that you have to bring a license and stand in line and punch a paper sheet in order to say "yes keep doing this in my name" you're suppressing your own voter turnout. And really - what do you believe in? What can you endorse that people actually want?

ButterflyEffect  ·  16 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I feel like your statement is true up until 2010. Then Citizens United happened and 2010-current it sure doesn’t feel like that’s how political authority happens.

Looks like I missed you! Next time!

ButterflyEffect  ·  22 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: What Did Jack Do?

“His left arm weighs 75lbs” lost my shit at that line. Going to have to rewatch this a few times.

ButterflyEffect  ·  31 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: America's Search and Rescue Is in a State of Emergency

Man this is a complex issue and a surprisingly good article by Outside. I’ve got some friends who are SAR or Mountain Rescue and it’s a tough fucking gig that you do because you want to give back. Once I have more time for a longer reply that’ll come but one way to deal with this is increased state NPS/USFS funding to deal with the ever growing number of outdoor enthusiasts on public lands. “Throw money at the problem” is an easy thing to say...but considering as a government the US does jack shit for funding our parks even a modest increase would go a looooong way.

kleinbl00  ·  31 days ago  ·  link  ·  

It strikes me as an utter waste that nobody has tried integrating the militias.

Give your average prepper a prestigious task involving adventure, physical accomplishment and hierarchy and you are suddenly integrating them. Let 'em carry their rifles along because why not but give them a few radio channels, some mandatory training, mandatory meetings and subsidized gear in exchange for their participation in keeping their fellow citizens safe. Require them to participate with their friends and comrades, give them the slightest bit of oversight (because distrust of the government is clearly a big thing) and not only are you using their powers for good, but you're keeping everyone in contact with each other such that the crazy ones are not only likely to be noted, they're also likely to go less crazy.

"The purpose of a well-armed militia being freely established..." I mean, if we extended the Boy Scouts out to retirement age I think we could solve a lot of problems.

ButterflyEffect  ·  30 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Ya know, quite a few of those people are involved in the Washington Off Road Recovery network (WORN) and Oregon Offroad Recovery. Except instead of hiking out and performing first aid and evac procedures, these people drive uhhhh jeeps and lifted trucks and own lots and lots of winches. Basically if you get yourself stuck on a forest road in either state for whatever reason, make a call/post to them and they will try to bail you out in addition to whoever the local sheriff/forest service operator is.

kleinbl00  ·  30 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I've pulled out my fair share of Texans.

If I were handed the Department of Homeland Security I'd build me a framework that any civic-minded organization could plug into. Centralize the rescue response. Categorize the response needed. Coordinate the responders. Make "FEMA" a name people want to hear again, like "Red Cross." If people want to help, let them. If people want to run around in the woods playing commando, give them a mission to do. A tenuous leash beats tar out of no leash at all and if I can give a bunch of preppers a reason to not immediately distrust their local Sheriff's Department we all win.

Bruh we’re already in deep trouble.

ButterflyEffect  ·  34 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Pubski: January 15, 2020

The catch is I have to use 4 of the weeks in the first 6 months of the year. PCT south will likely be doable by then. Also wondering about a mountainous vacation somewhere or a bunch of small trips but am trying to be cost-conscious.

ButterflyEffect  ·  35 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Repo Lightening

You know, that’s a really interesting point of wtf do the algorithms end up doing in the event of abrupt market or regulatory changes? Do they function in a manner that eases the financial impact or do we find out that the software behind all this isn’t suited for bear markets or lack of bailouts? Maybe that’s too Y2K esque.

kleinbl00  ·  34 days ago  ·  link  ·  
ButterflyEffect  ·  35 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Repo Lightening

I think my question isn’t really how this will end so much as how badly this will end?

kleinbl00  ·  35 days ago  ·  link  ·  

So here's the great dichotomy of our economy: ostensibly we're a regulated capitalist society whereby the market is permitted to work its efficiencies through the invisible hand. However, the more sophisticated your market the greater the influence of its regulation.

If you care about the market, you let bad things happen to it in order to restore equilibrium. If you care about the society, you protect it from the bad things in order to prevent deutschmark bonfires and the like. Economics in a nutshell. The downside is that there are no relationships that prevent regulation from killing the market or the market from destroying society and because it's damn hard to run lab tests on the global economy, we're all lab rats.

A few places this goes:

1) Steady capital injections of whatever the market needs returns it to its previous equilibrium. I mean, it could happen. Anything could happen. 3-2-1 Contact told me 40 years ago that overpopulation and peak oil were going to kill me just in time for the new Ice Age.

2) Steady capital injections of whatever the market needs makes the market insatiably hungry for capital. This is kind of what we're seeing. Will we be able to feed it forever? I've seen it suggested that eventually the Fed will just start buying stocks. Stranger things have happened. We're here talking about the Fed directly loaning money to hedge funds. The Swiss Central Bank owns enough apple stock for every citizen of Switzerland to have a $350 share. I believe we call that a corporatocracy.

3) Eventually the Fed can't feed the beast enough and the beast recoils. Everyone dumps their position so as to not be left holding the bag. Do the robots buy it back up? Who knows. What does a crash look like when the crashers are robots and the money is external?

Bitcoin exists because enough cypherpunks were pissed off about the first bailout. It's been ten years. The song remains the same. The bailouts happened because Ben Bernanke was one of the foremost scholars of the Great Depression and he thought he had a pretty good idea how to keep it from happening again. He was right - he prevented a second great depression. But he didn't stave off disaster entirely. One of the reasons I pay attention to John Mauldin is he called 2019 in 2009.

I wonder how this will end every single day.

ButterflyEffect  ·  35 days ago  ·  link  ·  

You know, that’s a really interesting point of wtf do the algorithms end up doing in the event of abrupt market or regulatory changes? Do they function in a manner that eases the financial impact or do we find out that the software behind all this isn’t suited for bear markets or lack of bailouts? Maybe that’s too Y2K esque.

kleinbl00  ·  34 days ago  ·  link  ·  

And much as the Romans did to Utica so did the late 20th century do to Upstate New York. Some “fun” historical parallels and, of course, city and townships names.

http://yorkstaters.blogspot.com/2006/01/whats-in-name-no2-origins-of-classical.html?m=1

ButterflyEffect  ·  41 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Ukrainian airliner crashes near Tehran: Iranian media

Yeah, that’s a big source of my discomfort. Not only is Biff our president but there’s a cast of people in positions they’re dangerously unqualified for. Bring back Condoleeza please.