in a word, yes.

they are winning.

but this particular incident isn't really a loss on our part, it's a tactical retreat. losing groklaw is a terrific blow to the public discourse, but maintaining groklaw in light of the now-apparent insecurities would have been worse. there is no sense in continuing to use the clearnet for this purpose. to continue doing so means allowing participants to be exposed to retribution from the state.

it's like the discussion among activists about the use of facebook. sure, facebook has fantastic publicity and organizing potential, but when every action you take is preemptively thwarted by the police, that benefit is all for nothing. so they retreat from facebook. but they don't stop altogether, they just move offline or switch to safer networks.

groklaw's work can still continue, just not in the same way nor in the same place. its closing is both a strong request for something safer to fill the vaccuum, and a wake-up call to those who are still complacent: look out, they have us running scared, we need to regroup, and you should help because this affects you too.