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user-inactivated  ·  54 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: This model forecast the US's current unrest a decade ago. It now says 'civil war'

Klein is correct that China is waging psychological warfare about Taiwan against Taiwan and the West, and it appears to be working very well in the United States. The US seems susceptible to it because (1) the media is sensationalist, and (2) many politically active Americans on both the left and the right like to fantasize about war. Most Americans I speak to about it over estimate the size and immediacy of the threat posed by China to TW compared to what people here in TW think.

However, China is not a "paper tiger" doomed to fail, and poses a very real and increasing threat to Taiwan. It's a real problem for us here and has been for awhile. While large gaps in their military and economic systems remain, they are modernizing rapidly and have made a lot of progress in the last 20 years.

That said, both Taiwan and China are real places full of real people and most US based analysis fails to understand the situation because it reduces them to pieces in a war game.