I've argued before - probably even on here! - about the likelihood of an exchange between India and Pakistan. But I just don't see it here. Jaish e Mohammed are an ISI puppet... but they're a decentralized ISI puppet. They do a lot of shit on their own. It's clear that ISI would like Kashmir to be messy but then, Pakistan has wanted Kashmir messy since '47. Wanna see an awesome quote? "Since the partition of British India in 1947 and creation of modern states of India and Pakistan, the two countries have been involved in a number of wars, and conflicts and military stand-offs. Most of these wars and conflicts, despite being initiated by Pakistan, have ended up with defeat or disaster for Pakistan." If I had to guess, this is India saying "little rabbit Fru Fru..." without giving Pakistan an excuse to escalate beyond popping some caps across the Line of Control. 'cuz Pakistan always loses. People forget: Pakistan went nuclear in May '98 and snuck four batallions into Kashmir in April '99. That was pretty clearly a let's see if India cares that we can nuke 'em! provocation and the answer was no they do not. There may come a time where things get so shitty in Kashmir that things get ooky bad but this just doesn't seem to me to be the thing to push it there.