The beginning seemed promising -- in 1921, the annual per capita consumption of alcohol dipped about 75% to 0.2 gallons, down from 0.8 gallons in 1919. However, by 1929, per capita consumption had steadily risen to 1.3 gallons. In other words, within a few years of the 18th Amendment being ratified, alcohol consumption returned to pre-Prohibition levels.
That NBER study linked is questionable; it uses cirrosis as a stand-in for consumption and it uses "the Becker & Murphy model of rationally addictive consumption." That the data assumes everyone drinking a beer is an addict really calls into question any of its math.
What struck me overnight is that everyone is quick to draw a line between Prohibition and the opioid epidemic when fuckin'A we've been legalizing marijuana for the past ten years and the results are not controversial.