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Explain to me then.

    it's not a methodology problem, it's a people are idiots problem

I want to make the point that ignoring the idiots is a methodology problem. If you ignore idiotic tendencies and unfounded 'gut feelings' in your methodology, your methodology can't be applied to people.

If someone reads "7% from indexing" enough places and jumps on board without the right mental prep, he won't be able to keep holding through a recession. Between fall '07 and Spring '09 the S&P dropped ~50% -- you don't just read some blog articles and maybe a book and have the mental groundwork in March '09 to say "I have half the retirement savings I did a year ago, but this is all part of my investment plan."

It takes serious willpower to index through a recession when it looks like the whole finance world is collapsing. Don't say anyone but an idiot could.