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snoodog  ·  2855 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Brexit looks likely.

kleinbl00 mk You guys need to step back and look at this in perspective. A vote leave does not mean live immediately. Its a non binding vote to initiate the process of trying to leave the EU. The vote won by 1-2% so not exactly a resounding victory.

What you are going to see next is people preparing and making motions to leave. This will cause all sorts of panic and uncertainty in the financial markets and trigger swift corrections in the British economy. The process in general will be very painful. Unemployment will go up, the pound will crash, prices on imports will go up, EU member countries will refuse further negotiations and all sorts of doom and gloom talk will happen. How long do you really think that 2% Brexit margin will hold? 3 months? 6 months? In less than a year after the people have suffered a little bit there will be a second referendum that will "Restore Britain to its former glory" or some other bullshit and will likely undo the first vote and may even strengthen European participation in the union.

The Greek bailout referendum is a good examples of what happens when you have referendums that go against established political will. Another good example is the The Treaty of Lisbon which was rejected by a dutch referendum but was subsequently backdoored into a series of smaller treaties. Like kleinbl00 pointed out a successful brexit will take years and a ton of political capital and this is just the first step of a long and hard process. I could be wrong but I just don't see this going that far.