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user-inactivated  ·  2930 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: SPACEX LANDS ON THE FREAKING DRONE SHIP

    The interesting thing, to my mind, is that in order for the economics of reusable launch vehicles to make sense, demand has to go up by a factor of ten. Let's see what that brings...

That begs the question of how many people have a kick ass Idea or business plan, but cannot afford launch services? Iridium, for example, spent about 1/2 of the costs of the satellites to launch them, and had to engineer the satellites to work on Russian, French and the Atlas launchers before finalizing a deal to launch everything via SpaceX in the future. What if that total dropped to 1/4? Someone out there has an Idea. But that Idea is being thwarted by launch costs and waiting for a manifest to open up.

The Europa Flyby Mission they are talking about, for those of you out there that want numbers, is expected to run 3-5 billion US dollars. Assume cost overruns, add a billion on that. Launch costs are $500 Million of that total, just to get the thing in space and the rocket they plan on using is not even built or tested yet, so double that launch cost.