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kleinbl00  ·  1447 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Matthew Yglesias: Something economists thought was impossible is happening in Europe

I wouldn't hold Euros right now. I'm as much a victim of confirmation bias as anyone but from everything I read, if the Euro makes it through Greece unscathed it's still got Spain, Portugal, Italy and France to deal with and much like the Nixon Shock, it's gonna go up like the Hindenberg when it goes. There isn't going to be a lot of time to play strategically, it's gonna be Euro/No Euro in the course of an afternoon.

I don't see war as a possibility. Greece is gonna default and face sanctions, but nobody's rolling troops over austerity. Russia got exactly what it wanted out of the Crimea and most of the big players are too busy dealing with their own ethnic bullshit to get belligerent over borders any time soon.

If I were to predict "next shots fired" I'd guess the Chinese and the Japanese are likely to play brink-of-war games. Japan's all twitterpated over ISIS and China is feeling nationalistic. Senkaku has cooled but I'll bet it gets hot again with very little prodding. That's disregarding the semi-regular border skirmishes in Kashmir, of course.