I think it's going to get worse... much worse... Syria worse. In Baghdad in early 2008 much of the explosions we heard shifted to Iraqi police being blown up. They were hit far more frequently than we were, at least in my AO.

We trained and funded the Sons of Iraq militia (Sunni), trained and funded the Iraqi Police (predominantly Shia), and trained, funded, and armed the Iraqi Army (predominantly Shia). They both have ample equipment and experience from the past 10 years to put a conflict into motion that may not stop for a looooong time.

We once tried a joint patrol with both SOI and Iraqi police which nearly ended in disaster -- they got into an argument and suddenly all guns were red and pointed at each other and everybody was yelling. It was a very tense few minutes before we were able to get the Sons of Iraq to leave. I still wonder who thought it was a good idea. "If we bring them together for a common goal, a common statehood, it will be like centuries of conflict never existed!"

Needless to say, that type of patrol never happened again.

The spike in the middle of 2013 causalities seems to correspond pretty well to the big prison break in July. No surprise there.

Large sections of cities are sealed off from each other by T-walls that contractors put into place (you can see them painted yellow and red in the picture in the article) which makes it much more simple to really seize and maintain control of sections of cities. There are only a handful of entrance/exit points in each section. It's entirely feasible to create strategic strongholds in the middle of the city in this manner. Taking them back if the entrances are well guarded and equipped could be very difficult.