Is there any potential for "Russian separatist" actions in Estonia or Latvia? That would be when the situation really gets tense. Or maybe Putin will stir that up after taking what he wants of Ukraine, and exchange cooling off on that to get the sanctions lifted.
I doubt it. They don't have the pro-Russian faction that Ukraine does. They were able to build more successful democracies quickly, were hot beads of unrest in the 80s, and the Baltic isn't as important as the warm weather ports in Ukraine. Also, they became NATO member while Russia was still weak, if memory serves, giving them assured defense from other NATO member states. For these reasons, I've read that the Baltic states are far less attractive to Putin to pick a fight over.
I don't think he is an idiot at all. He knows that he can take as much of Ukraine as he likes: It isn't hurting his popularity at home, and Europe likely can't bear broad-based sanctions over it.However, while Ukraine's prime minister, Arseny Yatseniuk said on Friday that Ukraine would now seek to join Nato, sources within the organisation said that it would be unlikely happen. Any such move would oblige Nato to come to Ukraine's immediate defence against Russia.
A Nato source said: "Ukraine is not an ally. Nato may respect Ukraine's decision if it seeks membership but the Alliance is not going to accelerate in that direction."
At the end of the day this will be a loss for Russia. A new cold war benefits nobody, and acting in this way is going to kill any relations Russia has with Europe. Suddenly, Europe/the EU will have reason to begin separating themselves from the Russian economy, and eventually there will be negative effects for Russia.
Are you sure? I think they have a sizable enough chunk of the EU by the balls to do what they want. Thanks to the Cold War, we (United States) got in bed with other sources of oil. Sources that don't exactly have a spotless record. But we don't talk about that, we wouldn't want to backhand our own petroleum supply. No, seriously. Do a search on Google News for "Saudi Arabia Beheading". Then, perform a search with any major U.S. media outlet preceding that, i.e. "U.S.-news-outlet Saudi Arabia Beheading". You'll find few domestic news sources mentioning Saudi Arabia's actions, and fewer still condemning them. It's pretty fucking disheartening. Since ISIS is creating greater havoc (even though we want nothing to do with them!), we can make them our centerpiece, our diversion from the fact that we're partially funding a government of an internationally recognized nation that isn't much more ethical. But concerning Russia, you're right, things are getting "colder". Putin has carefully calculated exactly where his bounds are, and they extend deep into the Ukraine, if not into Moldova and Belarus as well. Until he touches either an EU or a NATO country, it's likely no one will lift a finger, although the tension will grow. I'll refrain from speculating too much further on the future, tempting though it is.Suddenly, Europe/the EU will have reason to begin separating themselves from the Russian economy...
I mean, it's working. He has his peoples' support, and he simply isn't threatened (whether he should be or not) by the west. He's a winner as far as I'm concerned.