Good recap.
Perhaps one reason why there is so much agreement is because in addition to the question of whether same sex marriage is a right, there is also the matter of ballot initiatives targeting a minority group, and specifically and proactively excluding them from rights available to the majority. I can imagine a judge that wasn't looking to protect gay marriage could still find plenty wrong with these ballot measures.
True. However, the state's right argument against seems disingenuous in that any federally declared right is going to trump the state's prerogative. At least I cannot think of a federally guaranteed right that is prohibited by one or more of the states. Of course, some states do their best to obey the letter of the law while making every extralegal effort to the contrary.