I heard about this on the radio this morning and could only think of you. Hoping you're able to successfully avoid conscription.
How dumb is my idea...? Get conscripted. Go to Ukraine. Defect/get captured intentionally by the Ukrainians. (Note: Lots of hand-waving here... "I only joined so you could capture me and get me out of Russia!" and hope they take pity on you...) Continue west. Wind up in Belgium. Start your new life, free of Russia.
300,000 conscripted troops with a possibility of 700,000 more means a TON of possible deserters. Russia has an officer driven military. Those officers will be very few and far in-between and in charge of keeping large numbers of conscripts in line. The Russian logistical network is also rough, and I highly doubt they'll be able to keep up with 300,000 new people. Which basically means: 1. Executions for deserters will skyrocket 2. Food, medicine, and supplies will be minimal. Including winter gear.. 3. The Ukrainian POW system is going to be overrun with people. They are probably taking better care of prisoners than the Russians (recent footage from prisoner exchanges have been horrid). But not that much better. Best option is to get out before they can snag you. Deserting is the last ditch of all attempts.
Jesus, a decimation of young males. So much for learning from our mistakes
You have to keep in mind that it's a rare economist who suffers from their predictions being wildly wrong. But those predictions can be wildly wrong and still be really f'n rough for Russia, the Russian people and greater Asia in general. Considering all the jockeying between Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Georgia already a further weakening of Russia geopolitically is going to open a bloody free-for-all.