Genuinely appreciate the reply. It is very difficult to get a clear-eyed view of life inside Russia from over here. The big news on Russia last week was that Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi are publicly rebuking him at the security conference (or at least as far as they're willing to do within the context of diplomatic-speak). Seems like cracks are developing in Putin's armor that weren't apparent even a few weeks ago. Hopefully he will get the message and reformulate his strategy. As much as I'd like to see him go, I fear for your people if he's ousted in a violent or turbulent way. Seems like that typically leads to more suffering.
That's really horrible if he goes that route. The speculation in the Western media is generally that Putin would not want a general mobilization, because it will expose his "special military operation" as a lie. But that's western journalists trying to interpret things they likely don't understand very well.
Four months ago Western audiences were being told Russia had artillery stockpiles that could support their relentless battle tempo for eighteen months. Two weeks ago Western audiences were being told Russia was buying artillery rounds from North Korea. I'm not an expert on Russia. I'm not an expert on war. But you don't go from the former to the latter without lowering expectations. The fact that the most effective weapon in the Russian arsenal appears to be a loitering munition from Iran puts a tarnish on the Red Army, to put it mildly.
Oh I've heard plenty - it's just that I haven't even attempted to speak the language in nearly 40 years and am fully cognizant that everything I see and hear, I see and hear through a filter. This is one of many reasons I, and other Westerners, should regard things in terms of verifiable facts. According to official Russian statistics, Ukrainians have been killing an average of 262 Russian soldiers per day. On average, Afghan Mujahedin killed less than three per day in Afghanistan. On average, Ukrainians have been wounding about 800 Russian soldiers per day. Afghanistan? seventeen. "Decimate" has become a synonym for "annihilate" or "wipe out" or "utterly defeat." Historically and technically, however, to decimate means to reduce in strength by 1/10th through attrition. In terms of Russia's initial invasion of Ukraine, Russia's force has been decimated ten times over - in terms of statistics, Russia has accomplished the mathematically impossible and has lost more troops than it committed. In terms of active Russian forces? Decimation was months ago. In terms of history, Ukraine is an Afghanistan every fortnight and, aside from Ukraine's near total lack of navy, has already exceeded the Russo-Japanese War. Both conflicts toppled their leaders. Americans thinking they understand Russia is a trope that I am VERY guilty of. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice... something something George W Bush. I'm not about to pretend any insights in to Russia, Russian behavior or Putin's subconscious. But I can say that if two points determine a line, this is statistically a regime change event.
Rhetorically speaking, the architecture is (1) "what we are doing is correct beyond doubt or question" (2) "therefore an explanation for the way we are doing it is a courtesy and a privilege." This is the fundamental difference between an open society and a closed society: the open society requires the government to act with consensus or else the government is replaced. The closed society is compelled by the government so the consensus is achieved by definition. It's not "prisoners or your children you pick" it's "the Nazis are so depraved and worthy of genocide that even our hardened prisoners wish to take part in this historic, patriotic action."
No that's what's so astounding is that it is "prisoners or your children." They're abandoning normal pretense. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62922152