I think we’re going to see a second wave of shortages. All the back up part inventory had been used up and capacity to build stuff has not caught up to demand so we’re out of buffer. You can see this in supply chains everywhere, inventory of critical parts isn’t getting replenished. It’s not everywhere but there are enough critical bits that are running out that production bottle necks are popping up and causing problems in adjacent industries. Labor shortage is real too, that’s going to be our mechanism for inflation because suddenly wages have become unstuck and labor has some negotiation power
The entire just-in-time economy is crumbling like a sugar cube in tea. The fact that you can't buy green bananas anymore says it all. LOL. In the ten days it took me to redesign my cart to deal with the fact that Metal Supermarkets lies about their stock sizes, my cart went from $190 worth of metal to $370 worth of metal. People keep talking about how the lumber shortage is drawing to a close without recognizing that most of it is driven by wood borer beetles decimating Canadian forests due to climate change. Apples. At the local Kroger. Not on sale. No comment on the fact that these are ruined blems that would never have left the orchard under normal circumstances. It's what you got. Because if they didn't sell you these apples, they'd have no apples to sell.Labor shortage is real too, that’s going to be our mechanism for inflation because suddenly wages have become unstuck and labor has some negotiation power
It seems strange to me that there was no organized labor movement to demand higher wages, and conditions had to deteriorate so far that a streak of chaos was the spark that inspired a mass strike of sorts. I mean we all know that if you scaled the minimum wage from ~35 years ago proportionally to inflation that it's like $25/hour in today's dollars. It's almost like Capital was trying to foment revolution.?
“How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked. “Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.” - Earnest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises What really happened is conditions for unskilled and semi-skilled labor have been steadily deteriorating since the '70s. Conditions for unskilled and semi-skilled labor deteriorated precipitously starting March 2020. Simple inertia will keep you in place after that. Do you stay home or go back to the job you hated doing worse work for the same amount of money under shitty conditions? Or, since you've already been cast adrift, do you look around for the first time since forever? I recently finished The Outlaw Ocean. It's fuckin' medieval. Granted - container ships are top of the heap as far as the maritime economy is concerned but you're talking about an environment where summary executions, slavery, kidnapping, human trafficking and piracy are the fundamental underpinnings so a bunch of Philippinos stuck offshore for six months with crappy food and no way home? I mean, that basically just puts your average cargo crew on a level with your average fishing crew and if you do that once, you basically need to reconstitute your cargo fleet. You're talking an environment where stow-aways are routinely put overboard in order to avoid the costs of asylum. And you're talking about an economy in which Chinese bridge crew drive Phillipino deck hands like slaves, and both countries are under some changes at the moment. Being at sea used to be a slightly better deal than being on land. It very much isn't anymore. And that is going to completely unravel the global shipping industry because our maritime academy evolved in the treaty and customs cracks plastered over by the pretense of the New World Order.conditions had to deteriorate so far that a streak of chaos was the spark that inspired a mass strike of sorts.
In a labor shortage situation you don’t really need unions to demand higher wages. Employees just quit and go elsewhere. Union wages are actually quite sticky and low on the new hire end due to how contracts always favor seniority and get locked in for many years. Non union wages have been going up quickly to respond to labor shortages but union wages have to wait till next contract. Union leadership is also super stale in most organizations, they really are only effective in newly formed unions where the folks are passionate about organization and demanding reform vs protecting the status quo. The National union leaders are just cancer for the whole movement. I swear they were planted for their incompetence to prevent effective organization.