I'm not so sure. I do think equities are overvalued, some crazy so, and that stock prices may deflate, but the US just dropped A LOT of helicopter money.

This is the fundamental issue: equities are fairly priced as a function of the Fed's balance sheet. So the question then becomes whether or not the US dropped money in the correct proportion. Sitting here speaking as a corporation, I'm absolutely swimming in largesse. My buddy's mom up the street? Laid off after 17 years.

I see a crypto bear in the next year or so, but I don't think it will be long-lived for Ethereum and functional assets on it.

I think there's far too much institutional investment at this point for things to be as radical as they have been in the past. Crypto has become yet another asset class; when junk bonds are written at 3% there's very little reason for an institutional investor to not plow into Bitcoin. Bear market I can see; logarithmic gyrations the likes of which we've taken for granted up to now? I just don't see it anymore. There are too many people used to playing with other people's money in it now.

I see a lot of misguided experimentation followed by disillusionment, then followed by a complete remaking of the global financial system.

Right - but then if anyone read a term sheet SPACs wouldn't be anything. And considering how studiously unregulated the market is, it's got all the boiler room penny stock drawbacks of anything else off-market.

I expect an explosion in solar in the next decade. It makes sense on every roof.

Prices need to come down substantially. The Musks got a lot of involvement for SolarCity by repackaging a second mortgage as an energy play. Breakeven for much of the country is still a long ways out. Now - if we got federal investment the way the Chinese do it? Sure, I could see it. But as it is, solar makes sense on lots of roofs but not every roof. I've tried real hard to make it make sense on every roof I've lived under and it's pretty studiously refused.

It has been a week of abject shitcoin fuckery.

Saturday, the SEC lost a discovery motion against the personal tax records of the CEO of Ripple. So of course XRP went to the moon because of course, this means the SEC is going to lose their very-sound case alleging that XRP is a security, not a currency. It was pointed out that despite the fact that it shot from like 40 cents to like a buck 70, it's still less than half its all-time high, which means there are a bunch of XRP true believers out there who watched a gain of like 150% in two days and are still not even halfway to breakeven. Which warms the cockles of my black heart.

Tuesday, Binance announced you could buy fractional stocks with Binance Coin (BNB) starting with, of course, Tesla. All ownership was settled in BNB. Which means there was a lot of jiggery pokery involving BNB which shot up like 45%. It's back down? But not all the way back down?

Yesterday Coinbase listed and everyone was talking about Bitcoin, but nobody was buying Bitcoin. They were all buying and selling DOGE because there was a TikTok.

I think there's a lot of retail nonsense. I think there are a lot of RobinHooders flippityfloppityflooing around with whatever shit the cool kids say you should be buying and selling in the moment. It's participatory. On the other hand, ETH and BTC moves tend to be slow and lumbering and hard to explain except after the fact. They're starting to go institutional. I mean I got frickin' eleven presets in Cryptowatch and ETH/BTC have been boring to watch for the past week. Might as well sling Gamestop.

I mean look. Ethereum hard-forked four hours ago. Successfully. Predictably. As announced. Been on the schedule for a while. Yahoo Finance is running stock footage of a broken pencil. Ethereum? It's at an all time high, up $140 in the past 24 hours. So the narrative and the action have divorced pretty succinctly on all of it.