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comment by wasoxygen
wasoxygen  ·  1080 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: So how hot will it get?

More than half show net benefit by 2090.



mk  ·  1079 days ago  ·  link  ·  

    Carleton et al. (2020) compile the largest sub-national vital statistics database in the world, detailing 399 million deaths across 41 countries accounting for 55 percent of the global population. By combining these records with decades of detailed daily and local temperature observations, the authors discover that extreme cold and extreme heat have important effects on death rates. These relationships are modified by the climate and income levels of the affected population. Carleton et al. (2020) use these results to model how adaptation affects the sensitivity of a population to extreme temperatures.

I'd take the GDP numbers with a grain of salt.

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wasoxygen  ·  1079 days ago  ·  link  ·  

It’s hard to come up with numbers, to be sure. But the alternative is to say we have no idea. There is plenty of evidence that more people die in winter than summer.

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mk  ·  1079 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Sure but that’s mortality, and not GDP.

I think it’d be refreshing to hear “we have no idea”.

Do Florida/Hawaii have a lower death rates overall than Michigan?

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am_Unition  ·  1080 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Do you think half (or more) of the world's population resides in those countries that potentially might stand to benefit from climate change?

I haven't looked, but I wonder if you've let a bunch of small territories distort your perception.?

edit: Not sure that's a fair accusation anymore. I got through H- and stats became pretty suspect. Looking up methodology tomorrow.

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wasoxygen  ·  1080 days ago  ·  link  ·  

My perception is that this site indicates that more than half the countries show net GDP gain. That doesn’t mean it’s a global net gain.

I noticed Canada first. But relatively few people live in Canada, mainly because it’s too cold.

The FAQ indicates that the site author was perplexed at the gains as well. I haven’t looked at the methodology, but it’s often the case that cold kills more than heat.

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user-inactivated  ·  1080 days ago  ·  link  ·  
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user-inactivated  ·  1080 days ago  ·  link  ·  
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user-inactivated  ·  1080 days ago  ·  link  ·  
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user-inactivated  ·  1080 days ago  ·  link  ·  
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wasoxygen  ·  1080 days ago  ·  link  ·  

My perception is that this site indicates that more than half the countries show net GDP gain. That doesn’t mean it’s a global net gain.

I noticed Canada first. But relatively few people live in Canada, mainly because it’s too cold.

The FAQ indicates that the site author was perplexed at the gains as well. I haven’t looked at the methodology, but it’s often the case that cold kills more than heat.

Edit: so that’s how you get a double post.

Deleted comments always make me wonder what I missed, so I’ll leave this. I was about to add that I think the site ignores sea level change. I find that issue perplexing. Even the biggest projections show less rise than the daily tides cause now. Obviously not good for coastal property, but there are plenty of mitigation strategies, including relocating.

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am_Unition  ·  1079 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Dunno who left the deleted comments, wasn't me. Check your email... I'm curious. Maybe mk removed some spam?

Economically, I think of climate change as yet another opportunity for the wealthy to perpetuate wealth inequality. Subconsciously or otherwise.

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wasoxygen  ·  1079 days ago  ·  link  ·  

It’s been a while since I received an e-mail notification.

Can’t we find a way to work racism into this conversation too?

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am_Unition  ·  1079 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Sure, because disparities in wealth distribution break down along racial lines. Both nationally and globally.

Climate change will disproportionally affect non-whites. Good point.

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