I usually don't care for your cynicism, but I'm afraid you're right this time around. It is hard to imagine a situation in which anything is done about this that has ramifications for the man or his family. They'll probably prosecute a few morons for trespassing and vandalism, etc, and that will be the last of it. Trump might even pardon everyone there, since they'd all be accused of federal crimes. The pardon power, according to the Federalist papers, was contemplated for two distinct reasons. Reason 1 is mercy. Reason 2 is blanket clemency for things such as insurrections (as was used in the Whiskey Rebellion and after the Civil War). Ironically, it would be one of Trump's only "normal" uses of pardoning (with the small caveat that the Framers didn't comment on what happens when it's the President himself inciting the rebellion).
I'd gladly sacrifice the prosecution of Trump and his toadies for a real and comprehensive fight against global warming. Statehood for DC and Porto Rico are two other things that I think would be worth not pershing Trump. A national health garantee is a third thing I'd trade for letting Trump slide. If the Biden administration goes after Trump it will be consumed and defined by that action. I don't like Donald Trump but exacting vengeance on him isn't all that important in the scene of things. I'd like to see him impeached so he can't hold office again. I wouldn't be upset if he prosecuted by one or many of the states. I look forward to seeing many of those who breached the capital building doing real time in federal prison. I hope the things that happened this week leave Trumpism a marginalized political movement going forward.
Trump's own Executive Order mandates a 10-year sentence for defacing or vandalizing government property: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-protecting-american-monuments-memorials-statues-combating-recent-criminal-violence/ It'd be nice to see all the low-level possession offenders serving time getting clemency and having their sentences commuted, while the Trumpistani terrorists rot in jail for a decade each...