Unfortunately, I think it's possible that we have reached a point where it could be enough to result in systemic instability. If the equation is something like this: where m = available modes of destruction k = necessary know-how c = chance of getting caught beforehand d = instances of terrorist destruction then I think we are seeing an increase in m and a decrease in k. p * m * 1/k * 1/c = d p = people willing to destroy society
"Systemic instability" is classic mk-ese. What's wrong with systemic instability versus systemic stasis? If you call it "dynamism" it sounds like a good thing. If you measure actual incidents, like plane bombings, it's harder to justify concern. p * m does not account for the fact that psychopathic misanthropes have a harder time functioning in society, which usually limits access to m, the resources and assistance needed to accomplish big tasks. Ted Kaczynski lived in a hut. Bin Laden was the exception, inheriting millions, but he also had to live as a fugitive. He's probably the most tragically successful psychopath in modern times, but by body count he hardly rates historically. c may be increasing, as tools for surveillance and law enforcement are more powerful than ever.
I mean events that cause disruption like this pandemic. We can probably tolerate monthly plane bombings without regression. However, if we had a shock like the pandemic on an annual basis, I think we could see the decline of our current civilization by multiple metrics that can widely be agreed upon, something like the Dark Ages trajectory. I'm using broad terms like 'systemic instability', because I trust that you know what I mean. Rome suffered 'systemic instability'. I don't propose that we are there atm. I just think that we have moved closer. It's possible we are there, but unlikely."Systemic instability" is classic mk-ese. What's wrong with systemic instability versus systemic stasis? If you call it "dynamism" it sounds like a good thing. If you measure actual incidents, like plane bombings, it's harder to justify concern.
I don't know who's right, but many people argue that the cure is worse than the disease. If we had a response like 2020, every year, it wouldn't be Dark Ages right away but it would be bleak. If we only had the novel virus and let it run wild, it would cause a slight (and very tragic) bump in the baseline mortality rate. Influenza and pneumonia could be ten times deadlier, and they would still be less deadly than heart disease and cancer are individually.events that cause disruption like this pandemic
if we had a shock like the pandemic on an annual basis