I'll preface this by saying that I'm not nearly as bullish on EVs as is popular these days. Gates is definitely right that batteries are heavy--I think a model S weighs as much or more than a full size pickup. However, he is making a mistake by thinking that all the power needs to be on board at the start of the trip. It's not as if an 18-wheeler carries all the diesel it needs to go from LA to Chicago without stopping. They fuel up. And that's easy with diesel, because distribution is widespread and delivery is easy with a pump. Batteries obviously can't be charged quickly even with a "super charger" or whatever. But I think that there are probably ways around that (e.g. modular batteries, super high voltage chargers, etc). However, each of those solutions, while probably technically feasible, will require a lot of infrastructure to realize. And if the industry is smart, they will work together to try to make scalable solutions that work across platforms. There's no such thing as a Toyota gas station or a Volvo diesel station, and we wouldn't tolerate it if there was. So I think Gates is correct in the short term, but he could be wrong were the technology to advance to a point where it's no more burdensome to use electric than diesel or gas.
No, there are no Toyota or Volvo gas stations. But in the trucking industry they have Love's, and Stallion, and others. These are enormous truck service centers that are equipped to work on any vehicle that drives into their lot, and have amazing logistics networks for parts and equipment, as well as direct access to OEMs and their production line output. Manufacturers keep these service chains happy. Otherwise their brand vehicle sits parked in the lot, like a big billboard of failure that all the truckers can see. I know they are already looking at stocking replacement battery packs to recharge long-distance trucks. Pull in, swap your battery pack, and drive off 30 minutes later after you get a piece of pie and fresh coffee.
I agree with you. I think if we're trying to pick who is right and who is wrong and who is wrong but in a useful way, Gates is right short term, and the technology (including economic viability of technology) is unavailable to prove him wrong. By not relying on future advances he may help inspire alternative approaches. If Musk is right it isn't because he's already right it's because he's banking on future advances. So I put Gates between right and wrong but in a useful way and put Musk between potentially right but not usefully so and wrong and in a potentially harmful way (by discouraging alternate views). So I think Gates is correct in the short term, but he could be wrong were the technology to advance to a point where it's no more burdensome to use electric than diesel or gas.