CO₂ concentration in 1862 was 287 ppm, in line with values measured over the previous thousand years. When the next Great Flood occurs, will there be any justification to associate it with climate change?
A flood comparable to—and sometimes much more intense than—the 1861–1862 catastrophe occurred sometime between 1235–1360, 1395–1410, 1555–1615, 1750–1770, and 1810–1820; “that is, one megaflood every 100 to 200 years.”
The intervals between the midpoints of the these historical ranges (including the 1861-1862 event) are 105, 183, 175, 55 and 47 years. The average interval is 113 years.
The forecast accounting for climate change concludes that
an event expected to happen on average every 200 years will now happen every 65 or so. It is “more likely than not we will see one by 2060,” and it could plausibly happen again before century’s end, they concluded.
but great floods have already been happening more often than every 65 years since the American Revolution.
I'm not sure if we have a wager on sea level change but sea level per se shouldn't be our top concern. Property damage due to natural disaster is important, but it can be expected to increase as the total amount of infrastructure increases. Most important is the cost of natural disasters in human lives lost. Those who conflate correlation and causation might mistakenly conclude that carbon dioxide saves lives.