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comment by Hyperseeker
Hyperseeker  ·  1366 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Pubski: July 1, 2020

So, Russia's constitution is changing today. Putin's aiming to the God-President for Life, at this rate.

I'm saying "is changing", even though the votes are not in yet, because... Well, you know why.





goobster  ·  1366 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I've got a couple of friends who are well-known Russia analysts, and have been chatting with them for a while about this. The end result of the vote is not in question. The problem with Putin is that he is a fucking clever and crafty motherfucker with rock hard abs and a calculated machismo.

That translates into his morphing into the Czar-like god-head he projects to keep the core slavering over him, and keep the fringes scared, while running incredibly subtle and effective dezinformatsiya campaigns across Europe, the US, South America, and lots of the Pacific Rim. The reach of his data services - hacking, disinformation, political polarization - is absolutely unrivaled. But also obvious to anyone with any security experience/access.

So everyone who would normally DO SOMETHING about him, knows exactly what he is doing, and how he is doing it, but has their hands ties by the dipshits who are in power and love Strongman Putin.

When Russia falls - because it always does - and all this comes to light, it's going to make for a LOT of interesting reading and history-book editing.

Hyperseeker  ·  1366 days ago  ·  link  ·  

As a secondary, more reasoned reaction: I want to know what your analyst friends have to say.

goobster  ·  1366 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Pretty much what I said above: Putin has set this up carefully, so he will become the Russia God Head. Which will give him completely unchecked, Czarist powers. Which will make a large portion of the Russian population much more confident and happy. They like a strong ruler, and being ruled.

The issue is what happens when Putin CAN take the gloves off in China, Afghanistan, Syria, North Africa, and fully embrace Russia's clandestine relationship with North Korea.

He basically owns the US now, and we are completely de-fanged and ineffectual. His friends in the EU made sure to label the US as a global COVID pariah (rightfully so, I might add), but that frees him up to focus on the Korean Peninsula, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and the other Chinese fronts, where he can wage a similar proxy war against his sole remaining rival in the world, China.

It's hard to work INSIDE of China, due to their complete stranglehold on everything within their borders. So he has to work around the edges to keep them busy with border chaos. Hong Kong and S Korea are key elements in that plan, and are ripe for a US-like disinformation campaign based on social media and creating fictional agitators/groups to stir things up. They've already been at it for a couple of years, so have mature accounts and profiles already seeded into the primary info hubs and "influencers" to spread the viral info.

Finally, read up on Macau. It's gonna be the next spot for news.

This is where the Russian oligarchs and Chinese nouveau riche can spend and live profligately, while rubbing shoulders and finding common business interests. This is where Russia gets into the social machinery of China's elite, without having to deal with the Communist Party.

Personally, I expect Putin to come to some sort of deal with China (like he did with the US) around Huawei and 5G... and in return, getting access to some of the security backdoors Huawei has engineered into the platform. Expect to see an announcement of Russia awarding an all-Russia 5G contract to Huawei probably late this year. That will mean they have negotiated access to some of the security backdoors, in exchange for a large sum of money to bring 5G across Russia.

And those backdoors will work ANYWHERE in the world that Huawei hardware gets installed. Which is all of Africa, South America, Canada, and probably most of Asia.

It's all coming up roses for Putin, thanks to Trump's abdication of all responsibility.

user-inactivated  ·  1366 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Huh.. Well that's depressing.

Hyperseeker  ·  1366 days ago  ·  link  ·  

As absolutely fucking terrifying as all of this is... I find it a magnificent source of inspiration, as far as dystopian works of fiction go.

Also: if you have any, please supply available reading material with that sort of stuff.

Hyperseeker  ·  1366 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I just want to be able to appreciate these feudal bratva dealings from the outside.